Bari
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 20 in Serie B 40 pts · 10W–10D–18L · GD -22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bari?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bari's results were 5.9% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bari | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.5% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #11 | 1482 | 1499 | 1472 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #15 | 1420 | 1556 | 1480 |
| 2023-24 | Serie B | #17 | 1599 | 1625 | 1445 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #4 | 1559 | 1670 | 1630 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #5 | 1522 | 1581 | 1572 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | at Catanzaro | L Bari 15.2% · draw 20.0% | W ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Virtus Entella | L Bari 30.6% · draw 30.3% | W ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Avellino | L Bari 18.9% · draw 24.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Venezia | L Bari 15.9% · draw 19.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Monza | L Bari 7.0% · draw 13.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Modena | L Bari 22.1% · draw 24.5% | W ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Carrarese | L Bari 29.1% · draw 29.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | at Frosinone | L Bari 8.2% · draw 14.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Reggiana | W Bari 37.6% · draw 31.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Pescara | L Bari 34.0% · draw 30.0% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bari">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/serie_b"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bari">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>