Virtus Entella
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #20 of 20 42.9 expected pts · currently 0 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 20 in Serie B 42 pts · 10W-12D-16L · GD -15
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Virtus Entella?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Virtus Entella's results were 4.0% harder to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Virtus Entella | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 45.5% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie B | #19 | 1438 | 1438 | 1408 |
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #13 | 1498 | 1519 | 1458 |
| 2020-21 | Serie B | #20 | 1459 | 1459 | 1294 |
| 2019-20 | Serie B | #16 | 1465 | 1545 | 1442 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #18 | 1466 | 1537 | 1429 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Carrarese | W Virtus Entella 36.2% · draw 31.4% | W ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Bari | W Virtus Entella 39.1% · draw 30.3% | L ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Padova | W Virtus Entella 52.1% · draw 28.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Empoli | L Virtus Entella 29.9% · draw 29.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Venezia | L Virtus Entella 22.0% · draw 24.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Mantova | L Virtus Entella 31.1% · draw 30.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Reggiana | W Virtus Entella 46.6% · draw 29.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | at Pescara | L Virtus Entella 33.7% · draw 29.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Avellino | W Virtus Entella 34.3% · draw 32.9% | L ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Sudtirol | L Virtus Entella 19.7% · draw 26.2% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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