Bastia
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 18 in Ligue 2 29 pts · 5W–14D–15L · GD -16
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bastia?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bastia's results were 6.5% harder to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bastia | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 35.7% | 41.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 78.6% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | 47.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 2 | #15 | 1498 | 1498 | 1434 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #7 | 1540 | 1598 | 1533 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 2 | #8 | 1550 | 1569 | 1540 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #5 | 1482 | 1594 | 1563 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 2 | #7 | 1502 | 1543 | 1521 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1471 | 1507 | 1400 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1518 | 1536 | 1489 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #8 | 1498 | 1535 | 1511 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | vs Le Mans | L Bastia 30.0% · draw 29.9% | L ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Guingamp | L Bastia 27.1% · draw 29.6% | W ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Clermont | L Bastia 31.2% · draw 32.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Saint-Étienne | L Bastia 28.8% · draw 29.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Red Star | L Bastia 22.1% · draw 27.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Amiens | W Bastia 57.9% · draw 24.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Rodez | L Bastia 30.5% · draw 30.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Boulogne | W Bastia 40.5% · draw 30.9% | L ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Pau FC | L Bastia 29.9% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vs Annecy | W Bastia 38.0% · draw 31.3% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bastia">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bastia">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>