Ligue 1 2026-2027: Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Auxerre

Home Team
54%
VS

Le Mans

Away Team
22%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 26.4
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Auxerre

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Auxerre
Attack +4.9 Auxerre
Defense +3.0 Auxerre
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.2 Auxerre

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 71% for Auxerre. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Le Mans defense +2.9 Over
Le Mans attack & chance creation +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Auxerre defense +2.4 Over
Auxerre attack & chance creation +1.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lyon 7 4 2 1 13 5 8 14
2 Paris SG 7 4 2 1 14 9 5 14
3 Paris FC 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
4 Lille 7 4 2 1 10 5 5 14
5 Monaco 7 4 2 1 10 6 4 14
6 Rennes 7 4 1 2 15 14 1 13
7 Lorient 7 3 2 2 7 6 1 11
8 Lens 7 3 1 3 14 11 3 10
9 Marseille 7 3 0 4 14 10 4 9
10 Brest 7 2 3 2 13 10 3 9
11 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12 11 1 9
12 Auxerre 7 3 0 4 11 17 -6 9
13 Nice 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
14 Strasbourg 7 2 1 4 12 15 -3 7
15 Angers 7 2 1 4 9 15 -6 7
16 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10 15 -5 6
17 Troyes 7 1 1 5 5 16 -11 4
18 Le Havre 7 0 2 5 5 11 -6 2

Recent Trends

Auxerre W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)

Le Mans L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.41
xGA (avg) 0.89
Clean Sheets 1

Le Mans

xG (avg) 2.04
xGA (avg) 3.04
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre are favored to win at 54%, with a draw at 24% and a Le Mans victory at 22%. The goals lean is over 2.5, with a probability of 58%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Auxerre also rated ahead in attack and defense. They have scored 11 goals in seven league games but conceded 17. Their latest result, a 3-1 away win over Le Havre, came after a 1-4 defeat away to Rennes, which followed a 2-1 home win over Brest. Le Mans have lost their latest two, 0-3 at home to Toulouse and 1-3 away to Paris SG, after beating Lorient 2-1 at home. They have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. Away from home, they average 2.0 expected goals but score 1.3, suggesting their chance creation has not fully translated into goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Mans
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%. Le Mans have conceded 2.3 goals per away match on average, while their defensive record is also the strongest reason for expecting goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Mans
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.5 corners. Auxerre’s three latest matches featured 11, 17 and 11 corners in total, pointing to the possibility of a busy contest in that area.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Mans
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. Recent matches for both teams have included totals around that level, with Auxerre’s latest three producing 28, 33 and 19 shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Auxerre wins by X goals. Negative = Le Mans wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Auxerre vs Le Mans with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Auxerre vs Le Mans
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Auxerre’s favour. That fits the home advantage and the narrower gap between the teams in the win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Le Mans’ away chance creation could trouble Auxerre, especially given Auxerre have conceded 17 goals in seven league games. If Le Mans convert more of those chances than their away scoring average suggests, they could overturn the home-side lean.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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