Zaragoza
Segunda División · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #22 of 22 in Segunda División 36 pts · 8W–12D–22L · GD -24
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Segunda División simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Zaragoza?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 37 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Zaragoza's results were 8.7% harder to call than the Segunda División average. How this is measured.
| Market | Zaragoza | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 37.8% | 50.1% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 58.0% |
| Both teams to score | 37.8% | 56.0% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Segunda División | #21 | 1482 | 1490 | 1346 |
| 2024-25 | Segunda División | #18 | 1525 | 1563 | 1448 |
| 2023-24 | Segunda División | #14 | 1528 | 1621 | 1488 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #11 | 1540 | 1552 | 1517 |
| 2021-22 | Segunda División | #9 | 1510 | 1577 | 1543 |
| 2020-21 | Segunda División | #9 | 1482 | 1559 | 1515 |
| 2019-20 | Segunda División | #18 | 1516 | 1654 | 1479 |
| 2018-19 | Segunda División | #14 | 1622 | 1640 | 1493 |
| 2017-18 | Segunda División | #1 | 1482 | 1640 | 1640 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | vs Malaga | L Zaragoza 33.0% · draw 29.6% | L ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | at Las Palmas | L Zaragoza 18.0% · draw 24.0% | D ✗ |
| May 17, 2026 | vs Sp Gijon | W Zaragoza 41.8% · draw 30.4% | L ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Valladolid | L Zaragoza 23.4% · draw 27.5% | L ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Granada | W Zaragoza 39.6% · draw 30.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Huesca | L Zaragoza 34.3% · draw 31.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Ceuta | W Zaragoza 41.1% · draw 30.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Cordoba | L Zaragoza 17.7% · draw 24.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Mirandes | W Zaragoza 47.8% · draw 28.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Leganes | L Zaragoza 22.2% · draw 29.3% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/zaragoza">Segunda División title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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