La Liga 2026-2027: Alaves vs Atlético Madrid Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Alaves

Home Team
31%
VS

Atlético Madrid

Away Team
43%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Atlético Madrid

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Alaves
Chance creation (xG data) +8.0 Atlético Madrid
Attack +6.6 Atlético Madrid
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.1 Atlético Madrid
Defense +2.0 Atlético Madrid

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Atlético Madrid. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Alaves attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Form & results +2.1 Under
Atlético Madrid attack & chance creation +1.6 Over
Atlético Madrid defense +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31 7 24 21
2 Ath Madrid 7 5 1 1 16 7 9 16
3 Betis 7 5 1 1 9 7 2 16
4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 18 8 10 15
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10 9 1 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11 6 5 11
7 La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10 8 2 10
8 Sociedad 7 3 1 3 9 13 -4 10
9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 13 12 1 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Getafe 7 2 2 3 4 7 -3 8
12 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 6 13 -7 8
14 Celta 7 1 4 2 8 6 2 7
15 Espanol 7 2 1 4 10 10 0 7
16 Santander 7 2 1 4 11 21 -10 7
17 Levante 6 1 2 3 8 12 -4 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 11 17 -6 5
19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 3 12 -9 3

Recent Trends

Alaves D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Santander (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)

Atlético Madrid W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.53
xGA (avg) 1.05
Clean Sheets 2

Atlético Madrid

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.19
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Ath Madrid are the likeliest winners at 43%, with Alaves at 31% and a draw at 26%. The goals outlook leans under 2.5 at 53%.

Match Analysis

Alaves’ home advantage is a significant counterweight, while Ath Madrid’s stronger chance creation and attack tilt the balance toward the visitors. At home, Alaves average 2.3 goals from 1.5 expected goals, a gap that points to finishing above the chances created. Their home scoring record offers a route to trouble Ath Madrid, but sustaining that level may be difficult. Ath Madrid have won three straight, most recently beating Real Madrid 2-1 at home, after a 4-0 home win over Osasuna and a 3-0 away victory over Sociedad. Alaves have gone scoreless in their two latest outings, drawing 0-0 away to Ath Bilbao after losing 0-1 at home to Valencia. Before those, they lost 1-2 away to Santander.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
Atlético Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is the slight lean at 53%. Alaves’ recent lack of goals and their attack’s contribution to the lower-scoring forecast are balanced by Ath Madrid’s recent scoring form and the league’s tendency toward more goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches
Atlético Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.3 corners. Recent matches have ranged from six total corners in Alaves’ draw with Ath Bilbao to 12 in Ath Madrid’s away win over Sociedad, making a figure near nine a reasonable projection.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches
Atlético Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 25 shots. Recent match totals for both sides have generally been around the low-to-high twenties, including 26 in Alaves’ latest game and 26 in Ath Madrid’s win over Real Madrid.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Alaves wins by X goals. Negative = Atlético Madrid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Alaves vs Atlético Madrid with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Alaves vs Atlético Madrid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about a third of a goal in Ath Madrid’s favour. That narrow gap reflects Alaves’ home advantage, even as the visitors’ attacking form and chance creation support their higher win probability.

Final Prediction

Alaves’ ability to turn their strong home scoring record into chances could upset the forecast. Ath Madrid’s recent results show they can punish opponents, so Alaves will need more than the quiet attacking displays of their two latest matches.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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