La Liga 2026-2027: Real Betis vs Osasuna Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Real Betis

Home Team
55%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
21%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Real Betis

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Real Betis
Chance creation (xG data) +3.7 Real Betis
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.2 Real Betis
Defense +1.9 Real Betis
Results & dominance +1.8 Osasuna

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 73% for Real Betis. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Real Betis attack & chance creation +8.5 Over
Osasuna attack & chance creation +3.4 Under
Real Betis defense +2.7 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Osasuna defense +1.2 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 31 7 24 21
2 Ath Madrid 7 5 1 1 16 7 9 16
3 Betis 7 5 1 1 9 7 2 16
4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 18 8 10 15
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 10 9 1 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11 6 5 11
7 La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10 8 2 10
8 Sociedad 7 3 1 3 9 13 -4 10
9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 13 12 1 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Getafe 7 2 2 3 4 7 -3 8
12 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 6 13 -7 8
14 Celta 7 1 4 2 8 6 2 7
15 Espanol 7 2 1 4 10 10 0 7
16 Santander 7 2 1 4 11 21 -10 7
17 Levante 6 1 2 3 8 12 -4 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 11 17 -6 5
19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 3 12 -9 3

Recent Trends

Real Betis D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs La Coruna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 5)

Osasuna D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Betis

xG (avg) 1.73
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 2

Osasuna

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 2.28
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are favoured to win at 55%, with a draw at 24% and an Osasuna victory at 21%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, supported by Betis’s stronger chance creation and defensive numbers. Betis have averaged 1.0 goals conceded at home, though their home expected goals against of 1.6 suggests opponents have found opportunities. Osasuna have conceded 3.3 goals per away game, a vulnerability Betis may be able to exploit. Betis’s recent run has been steady: they beat Villarreal 2-1, then Getafe 1-0, before drawing 1-1 away to La Coruna. Osasuna lost 0-2 to Espanol and 0-4 away to Ath Madrid before their latest 1-1 draw with Vallecano. That heavy defeat underlines the risk in their away defending, even though the latest result offered some resistance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%. Betis’s attack and chance creation are the strongest influence towards a higher total, while their home expected goals against of 1.6 also points to a chance of Osasuna finding space.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.8 corners. Recent totals have varied, from 16 in Betis’s match with La Coruna to eight in Osasuna’s game with Vallecano, but the projection points to a moderate count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 27 shots. Betis and La Coruna combined for 35 in their latest match, while Osasuna and Vallecano had 29, suggesting both teams can contribute to a busy shooting total.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Real Betis wins by X goals. Negative = Osasuna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Real Betis vs Osasuna with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Real Betis vs Osasuna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.7 goals in Betis’s favour. Their home advantage and Osasuna’s away defensive record support that lean.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s best route to upsetting the forecast is to make the most of the chances Betis have allowed at home. Betis have conceded no goals on average in those matches, but the underlying expected-goals figure suggests that record may be difficult to maintain.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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