La Liga 2026-2027: Valencia vs Sociedad Prediction - 20 Sep 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread
Valencia
Home Team
37%
VS
Sociedad
Away Team
34%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5:
48%
Under 2.5:
52%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Expected Corners:
9.5
Expected Shots:
25.3
Expected Spread:
-0.1
Why the Model Leans Valencia
The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.
When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Valencia. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
Why the Model Sees Under 2.5
The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.
These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upCurrent Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 18 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Ath Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | La Coruna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Espanol | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Betis | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Santander | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Vallecano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Getafe | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Celta | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Malaga | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Valencia
- Last Match: vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 5)
- 4th Last Match: vs La Coruna (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 1)
Sociedad
- Last Match: vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Valencia
xG (avg)
0.74
xGA (avg)
2.09
Clean Sheets
1
Sociedad
xG (avg)
0.83
xGA (avg)
2.63
Clean Sheets
1
Key Prediction Insights
Valencia are narrowly tipped to edge this one at Mestalla, with a 37.0% probability of a home win against 34.0% for Real Sociedad and 28.0% for the draw. The model expects a tight, low scoring contest, going for under 2.5 goals with a 52.0% likelihood. In the table, Sociedad sit 12th on 7 points, while Valencia are down in 18th on 4 points and badly need a result in the relegation zone.
Match Analysis
The slight edge toward Valencia comes mainly from the home advantage, which swings the prediction by 12.9 percentage points. That boost is crucial because in almost every performance metric Sociedad have the stronger profile. Valencia have lost 4 of their 6 league games, scoring only 2 and conceding 10, although they did finally grab a vital 1-0 win away at Alaves in their last outing. Before that they were outclassed by Sevilla (0-1) and thrashed 0-5 at home by Barcelona.
Sociedad arrive with a more balanced recent run and better underlying numbers. They have taken 4 points from their last three matches, including a 3-2 victory at Elche and a 0-0 home draw with Celta, before a 0-3 defeat at home to Atletico Madrid. Over the last five matches they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, with 0.83 expected goals (xG) created and 2.63 xG allowed. The model key factors lean toward Sociedad in chance creation, defense, attack and recent results, each adding small but consistent advantages over Valencia.
Valencia’s advanced metrics underline their struggles. Across the last five games they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with only 0.74 xG created per match compared to 2.09 xG conceded. One clean sheet in that stretch shows some capacity to shut up shop, but overall they rely heavily on the Mestalla factor to offset Sociedad’s superior shot creation and finishing profile.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
Recent Goals Trends
Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5
Valencia
Sociedad
The over 2.5 prediction leans slightly to the under, with the model choosing under 2.5 at a 52.0% probability. The strongest driver is Valencia attack and chance creation, which pushes the forecast toward under 2.5 by 8.5 percentage points as they simply do not generate many clear openings. Sociedad’s attack and chance creation also nudges under by 1.2 points, despite their better recent scoring.
Recent scorelines are mixed but still support a cautious under 2.5 read. Valencia’s last three totals have been 1, 1 and 5 goals (two under, one over). Sociedad’s have been 3, 5 and 0 (one under, two over). However, the averages point to modest output: Valencia at 0.0 scored and 2.0 conceded in their last five, Sociedad at 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. With xG figures under 1 for both sides, the under 2.5 prediction lines up with the overall attacking profile.
Corners Prediction
Recent Corners Trends
Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.
Valencia
Sociedad
Corners Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.51 total corners, essentially a medium volume game. Valencia’s last three matches produced corner counts of 7, 10 and 5 (for them plus their opponents), while Sociedad’s produced 12, 13 and 14. That recent pattern suggests that Sociedad’s style, which generates plenty of wide attacks and set piece situations, could lift the total near the expected figure.
Valencia have not been particularly dominant territorially, but at home they should contribute more to the total, especially if they are forced to chase spells of the game. The predicted corners number sits comfortably between the low volume of Valencia’s Barcelona defeat and the high numbers seen in Sociedad’s recent home matches.
Shots Prediction
Recent Shots Trends
Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.
Valencia
Sociedad
Shots Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction expects about 25.3 total attempts in this match. Valencia have recently recorded 10, 3 and 3 shots, while facing 15, 13 and 25. Sociedad have taken 8, 13 and 16 shots in their last three, while conceding 13, 20 and 7. That profile suggests Sociedad are more likely to drive the shot count, with Valencia contributing in bursts.
Given both teams’ xG per game under 1, the expected shots figure points to many efforts from less dangerous positions rather than constant clear chances. The combination of relatively high shot volumes for Sociedad and low efficiency from Valencia aligns with a game that is busy in terms of attempts but not necessarily rich in goals.
Goal Spread Prediction
Goal Spread Probability Distribution
Positive = Valencia wins by X goals. Negative = Sociedad wins by X goals.
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sets the expected spread at -0.13 in goals (home minus away), which means the model views Sociedad as very slightly stronger on neutral terms, but the difference is minimal. With win probabilities of 37.0% for Valencia and 34.0% for Sociedad, the expected spread mainly reflects Valencia’s home advantage against Sociedad’s better overall metrics.
Recent goal differences point to both teams being fragile. Valencia’s last three results show a combined goal difference of -5 (1-0, 0-1, 0-5), while Sociedad are on -2 over their last three (0-3, 3-2, 0-0). The expected spread matches a contest where neither side is likely to dominate the scoreline, and a narrow win or a draw is the most realistic outcome.
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
Final Prediction
Valencia’s slight edge comes above all from home advantage, the top model factor, which compensates for inferior form and underlying numbers. Sociedad have the stronger case in attack, defense and chance creation, but must translate that into points away from home. The key factor to watch is how often Sociedad can turn their territorial dominance into clean chances against a Valencia side that has struggled badly to create but will be backed by a restless Mestalla crowd.
More Football Predictions
Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:
Get Daily Football Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel