Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Metz Prediction

Angers

Home Team
58%
VS

Metz

Away Team
22%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 19 14 3 2 41 15 26 45
2 Lens 19 14 1 4 33 16 17 43
3 Marseille 19 12 2 5 44 20 24 38
4 Lyon 19 11 3 5 32 20 12 36
5 Lille 19 10 2 7 34 29 5 32
6 Rennes 19 8 7 4 30 27 3 31
7 Strasbourg 19 9 3 7 32 23 9 30
8 Toulouse 19 8 5 6 31 23 8 29
9 Lorient 19 6 7 6 25 30 -5 25
10 Monaco 19 7 3 9 28 33 -5 24
11 Angers 19 6 5 8 20 25 -5 23
12 Brest 19 6 4 9 24 31 -7 22
13 Nice 19 6 3 10 25 36 -11 21
14 Paris FC 19 5 5 9 24 32 -8 20
15 Le Havre 19 4 8 7 16 24 -8 20
16 Nantes 19 3 5 11 18 34 -16 14
17 Auxerre 19 3 3 13 14 29 -15 12
18 Metz 19 3 3 13 21 45 -24 12

Recent Trends

Angers ⚪ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)

Metz ❌ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.75
# Clean Sheets: 2

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.85
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Angers and Metz is predicted to end in favor of the home team, Angers, with a 58.0% probability of victory. The likelihood of a draw stands at 20.0%, while Metz holds a 22.0% chance of winning. With both teams currently sitting in the lower half of the Ligue 1 standings—Angers at 11th and Metz at 18th—a win is crucial for both to improve their league positions. The probability of the match having fewer than 2.5 goals is 53.0%, suggesting a potentially low-scoring encounter.

Match Analysis

Angers' recent performances have been a mixed bag. They managed a goalless draw against league leaders Paris FC, but succumbed to a heavy 2-5 defeat at home against Marseille. Their 1-2 loss to Le Havre further highlighted defensive vulnerabilities, yet they have maintained two clean sheets in their last five matches. Angers are scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game in their recent fixtures, but their defense has been leaking, with 1.6 goals conceded on average. Metz, on the other hand, has struggled significantly, sitting at the bottom of the league with only 12 points. Their recent form includes a tough 2-5 defeat to Lyon at home and a narrow 1-2 loss away to Strasbourg. A draw against Lorient provided a rare point, but with zero clean sheets in their last five matches, defensive solidity has been elusive. They have averaged 1.4 goals per game, but their defense has been even more porous, conceding 1.8 goals on average.

Final Prediction

Angers appear to have a slight edge in this match-up due to their more favorable statistical outlook and home advantage. Their ability to keep clean sheets could be pivotal against a Metz side that has struggled defensively and offensively. A key factor to watch will be Angers' ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, as their expected goals statistics suggest they are creating enough chances to find the back of the net.