Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Angers Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Auxerre

Home Team
56%
VS

Angers

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 30 22 3 5 68 25 43 69
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 60 32 28 63
3 Lyon 31 17 6 8 48 32 16 57
4 Lille 31 17 6 8 50 34 16 57
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 54 42 12 56
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 59 41 18 53
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 54 47 7 51
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 49 39 10 46
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 42 47 -5 41
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 43 44 -1 38
11 Brest 30 10 8 12 41 47 -6 38
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 40 47 -7 38
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 26 43 -17 34
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 29 42 -13 31
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 35 57 -22 30
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 27 42 -15 25
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 26 51 -25 20
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 31 70 -39 16

Recent Trends

Auxerre L D D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)

Angers L D L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 2

Angers

xG (avg) 0.84
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 56.0% chance of victory against Angers’ 22.0%, and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win in a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (43.0% for over, so the edge is on the under). In the table, Angers sit 13th on 34 points, while Auxerre are 16th on 25 points and fighting to stay clear of the bottom two.

Match Analysis

Auxerre come in off a gritty run: a 3-2 defeat at Lyon, followed by back‑to‑back draws away to Monaco (2-2) and at home to Nantes (0-0). The last three games show a team that can raise its level against stronger opposition, scoring four times in two tough away trips before tightening up defensively at home. Their recent advanced numbers back that up: only 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded on average over the last five, but with 1.17 expected goals for and 1.094 against, plus two clean sheets, suggesting a side that is more solid than their league position implies and perhaps a bit unlucky in front of goal. Angers, 13th and relatively safer but still looking over their shoulder, have stuttered: a 0-3 home loss to Paris SG, a 1-1 home draw with Le Havre, and a 1-2 defeat at Rennes. That’s just two goals scored and six conceded in three games, and the trend is echoed in the metrics: they average only 0.6 goals scored but 2.2 conceded over the last five, with 0.842 expected goals for and a worrying 1.832 against. Auxerre’s more balanced xG profile versus Angers’ leaky defence is a key reason the hosts are favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction given only a 43.0% probability, so the more likely scenario is a cagey, low‑scoring affair. Auxerre’s last three matches produced totals of 5, 4 and 0 goals – two out of three went over 2.5 – but their longer‑term averages of 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded, plus modest xG numbers, still point toward tight margins. Angers’ recent totals of 3, 2 and 3 goals (two under 2.5, one over) combined with just 0.842 xG going forward further support the under 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.4, which suggests a fairly average level of set‑piece action. Auxerre’s last three games saw combined corner counts of 9, 14 and 5, reflecting a side that can rack up flags when the game opens up but is quieter when more cautious at home. Angers have posted totals of 9, 7 and 14 corners in their last three, indicating that when they are pushed back, they concede plenty of corners; that fits a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark for two teams who are not relentlessly attacking but do use the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.73 for the match, suggesting a moderate shooting volume rather than an end‑to‑end shootout. Auxerre’s last three outings produced 9, 12 and 5 attempts of their own, while facing 12, 15 and 13 – not exactly high‑tempo, but enough to generate chances in line with their 1.17 xG average. Angers have taken 6, 11 and 6 shots and allowed 17, 16 and 15; this supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s overall, with Auxerre likely creating the clearer opportunities given the xG profiles.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Auxerre wins by X goals. Negative = Angers wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Auxerre vs Angers with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Auxerre vs Angers
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Auxerre -0.81, meaning the expected spread has the home side winning by around one goal. In their last three, Auxerre’s goal differences were -1 (2-3), 0 (2-2) and 0 (0-0), hinting at competitive matches decided by fine margins. Angers have posted goal differences of -3, 0 and -1, reinforcing the idea of a weaker defence and aligning with the 56.0% home‑win probability and the model’s view that Auxerre’s more balanced attack‑defence mix should tilt the game their way.

Final Prediction

Auxerre’s stronger underlying numbers, home advantage and Angers’ defensive issues give the hosts a clear edge despite their lower league position. In what should be a tight, low‑scoring affair, the battle between Auxerre’s improving attack and Angers’ fragile back line looks decisive – whichever side handles those key moments around the box is likely to walk away with the points.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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