Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Lorient Prediction - 7 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Brest
Home Team
52%
VS
Lorient
Away Team
24%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
50%
No Goal:
50%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 27 | 48 |
| 2 | Lens | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Marseille | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 39 |
| 4 | Lyon | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Lille | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 32 |
| 6 | Rennes | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 31 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Lorient | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 | Monaco | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 27 |
| 11 | Angers | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 26 |
| 12 | Brest | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 | Nice | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 20 |
| 16 | Nantes | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
| 18 | Metz | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 12 |
Recent Trends
Brest
- Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
Lorient
- Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Brest
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.64
# Clean Sheets:
1
Lorient
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.65
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Brest are slight favourites at home, with a 52.0% chance of victory against Lorient’s 24.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The game is projected to finish under 2.5 total goals (47.0% for over, so leaning to a low-scoring contest), but both teams are still rated at 50.0% to score. In the current Ligue 1 table, Lorient sit 9th on 28 points, while Brest are 12th on 23 points.
Match Analysis
Brest come into this Breton clash on a three-game winless run: draws at Nice (2-2) are sandwiched between home and away defeats to Toulouse (0-2) and Lyon (1-2). Despite those results, their underlying numbers in the last five games are strong: they average 1.736 expected goals created and only 0.636 expected goals conceded, with 1.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per match, plus one clean sheet. That suggests a team generally controlling games better than recent scorelines imply.
Lorient arrive with momentum after three straight wins: 2-1 at home to Nantes, then impressive away victories at Rennes (2-0) and Monaco (3-1). However, their recent advanced metrics are more fragile than the results: they’ve scored 1.2 goals per game but concede 1.0 on average, with only 1.004 expected goals for and a relatively high 1.646 expected goals against in the last five. Two clean sheets show they can dig in, but they’ve also allowed opponents good chances.
Final Prediction
Brest’s combination of home advantage and stronger recent chance creation and defensive control gives them a narrow edge despite Lorient’s better league position and winning streak. The key factor to watch will be whether Brest’s superior expected-goal profile finally translates into clinical finishing against a Lorient side that has been overperforming its underlying defensive numbers.
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