Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Toulouse Prediction

Brest

Home Team
39%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
35%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 18 14 1 3 32 13 19 43
2 Paris SG 18 13 3 2 40 15 25 42
3 Marseille 18 11 2 5 41 19 22 35
4 Lyon 18 10 3 5 27 18 9 33
5 Lille 18 10 2 6 33 25 8 32
6 Rennes 18 8 7 3 30 25 5 31
7 Strasbourg 18 8 3 7 28 22 6 27
8 Toulouse 18 7 5 6 29 23 6 26
9 Monaco 18 7 2 9 28 33 -5 23
10 Brest 18 6 4 8 24 29 -5 22
11 Angers 18 6 4 8 20 25 -5 22
12 Lorient 18 5 7 6 23 30 -7 22
13 Paris FC 18 5 4 9 24 32 -8 19
14 Le Havre 18 4 7 7 16 24 -8 19
15 Nice 18 5 3 10 21 35 -14 18
16 Nantes 18 3 5 10 17 30 -13 14
17 Auxerre 18 3 3 12 14 28 -14 12
18 Metz 18 3 3 12 19 40 -21 12

Recent Trends

Brest ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)

Toulouse ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.92
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.08
# Clean Sheets: 2

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.61
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Brest and Toulouse is predicted to favor Brest, with a 39.0% probability of a home victory. The odds are slightly in Brest's favor despite Toulouse's close 35.0% chance of winning. The probability of a draw stands at 26.0%. Current standings put Toulouse in 8th place with 26 points, while Brest trails in 10th with 22 points. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair with under 2.5 goals, indicated by a 45.0% probability for over 2.5 goals. Additionally, the likelihood of a goalless match is highlighted by a 49.0% probability of no goals being scored.

Match Analysis

Brest's recent form has been inconsistent, with a mixed bag of results in their last three outings. They suffered defeats against Lyon and Rennes while managing to secure a win at home against Auxerre. Their goal-scoring capabilities have been modest, averaging 1.2 goals per game over the last five matches, yet they have shown some defensive solidity with two clean sheets in the same period. Their expected goals (xG) of 1.916 suggests they have been creating scoring opportunities, but converting them remains a challenge. Toulouse, on the other hand, displayed a strong performance in their last match, crushing Nice with a 5-1 victory. However, they couldn't carry that momentum against Lens, where they lost 3-0. Their away win against Paris FC demonstrated resilience, with a clean sheet to match. Toulouse has averaged 1.6 goals per game in their last five outings but has been vulnerable at the back with an average of 1.0 goals conceded. Their xG of 1.246 indicates a moderate offensive threat, which they will need to capitalize on against Brest.

Final Prediction

Brest's slight edge in the prediction could stem from their home advantage and the ability to maintain defensive stability in recent matches. One key factor to watch will be whether Brest can convert their chances effectively, given their higher expected goals statistic. With both teams showing potential in attack but also weaknesses in defense, the match promises to be a closely contested affair.