Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Brest Prediction
Le Havre
Home Team
44%
VS
Brest
Away Team
30%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
55%
No Goal:
45%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lens | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Marseille | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | Lyon | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Lille | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Monaco | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Rennes | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nantes | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Lorient | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Metz | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Le Havre
- Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 6)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
Brest
- Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Le Havre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.12
# Clean Sheets:
2
Brest
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.96
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Le Havre and Brest sees Le Havre as the predicted winner with a 44.0% probability. This game, however, is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with a 46.0% chance of having under 2.5 goals. Currently, both teams share the same points in the league, with Brest sitting in 12th position and Le Havre in 14th, each with 9 points from 9 matches.
Match Analysis
Le Havre heads into this match on the back of a mixed set of results. They have secured a victory away against Auxerre, drew at home with Rennes, and suffered a heavy defeat at Marseille. Their recent performances show an average of 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Notably, they have managed to keep two clean sheets in their last five matches. Their expected goals statistics indicate they have been creating decent chances, averaging 2.0025 expected goals per match, which suggests they can be a threat going forward.
On the other hand, Brest has shown resilience despite tough fixtures. They managed a draw against Lorient and a stalemate with Nantes, although they fell to a 3-0 defeat at the hands of league leaders Paris SG. Brest's recent performances reveal an average of 1.5 goals scored per game but have been leaking goals, conceding an average of 2.0 per game over their last five outings. Their expected goals conceded figure of 1.9575 highlights a defensive vulnerability that Le Havre might exploit.
Final Prediction
Le Havre's edge in this match comes from their ability to create scoring opportunities, as evidenced by their higher expected goals figures. This ability, coupled with Brest’s defensive frailties, could be the decisive factor. Fans should keep an eye on Le Havre's attacking play, as their ability to convert chances might dictate the outcome of this encounter.