Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Lorient Prediction
Lens
Home Team
77%
VS
Lorient
Away Team
11%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5:
53%
Under 2.5:
47%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Monaco | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Lens | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Lille | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Rennes | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Le Havre | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Brest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Lorient | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 |
| 18 | Metz | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 5 |
Recent Trends
Lens
- Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 0)
Lorient
- Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lens
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.17
# Clean Sheets:
1
Lorient
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.94
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Lorient is heavily tipped in favor of the home team, Lens, with a 77.0% probability of victory. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals, with a 53.0% chance of this outcome. Currently, Lens sits comfortably in 6th place, while Lorient is in a more precarious 16th position, fighting to stay out of the relegation zone.
Match Analysis
Lens comes into this match with a solid record from their last three games, securing two wins against Marseille and Paris FC, both with a 2-1 scoreline at home, although they did falter in an away match against Metz with a 0-2 defeat. These performances have kept them in the running for European competition spots. Their attack has been relatively sharp, averaging 2.0 goals per game in their last five outings, and their defense has been fairly reliable, conceding only 0.8 goals on average in the same span.
In contrast, Lorient is struggling to find form, with no wins in their last three matches. They managed a commendable 1-1 draw against Paris SG at home but suffered a 0-2 loss against Angers and were held to a 3-3 draw by Brest. Lorient’s offense has been lackluster, averaging just 0.2 goals per game in their recent fixtures, while their defense has been porous, conceding 2.0 goals per game. These metrics underscore the challenges they face in reversing their fortunes.
Final Prediction
Lens is poised as the likely victor in this matchup, thanks to their superior form and consistent performances, especially at home. A key factor to watch will be Lens's ability to capitalize on Lorient's vulnerable defense, which could lead to a high-scoring affair. With both teams' recent histories and statistical metrics considered, Lens appears to have the upper hand in securing a crucial three points.