Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lens vs Marseille Prediction
Lens
Home Team
15%
VS
Marseille
Away Team
70%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5:
56%
Under 2.5:
44%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Paris FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lens | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Rennes | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Lorient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Nantes | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Metz | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Lens
- Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 2)
Marseille
- Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 6 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 4 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lens
Average Expected Goals (xG):
3.02
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.26
# Clean Sheets:
2
Marseille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.43
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Lens and Marseille is anticipated to lean heavily in favor of Marseille, with a 70.0% probability of them securing a victory. The prediction also suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, at a 56.0% probability. Lens currently sits in 4th place in the Ligue 1 standings, while Marseille leads the league in 1st position, showcasing their dominance early in the season.
Match Analysis
Lens has shown resilience in their recent fixtures, securing two wins and a draw in their last three matches. They managed to defeat Paris FC and Auxerre with identical 2-1 scorelines and secured a goalless draw against Rennes. Despite these strong performances, Lens still faces a challenging task against Marseille. Lens has been effective defensively, keeping two clean sheets in their last five matches, with an average of 0.75 goals conceded per game. Their offensive capabilities are underscored by an impressive average of 2.0 goals scored, supported by an even higher expected goal rate of 3.0225.
Marseille, on the other hand, enters this fixture in formidable form, having won all their recent three matches against Le Havre, Metz, and Strasbourg. They showcased their attacking prowess with a six-goal haul against Le Havre and a solid defensive display, maintaining three clean sheets in the last five games. Averaging 1.25 goals per game, their expected goals tally stands at 1.9125, indicating their ability to create opportunities. Marseille's defense, similar to Lens, averages 0.75 goals conceded per game, making them a well-rounded unit.
Final Prediction
Marseille's impressive league-leading position and recent form give them a clear edge in this fixture. Their consistent ability to both score and defend effectively positions them as favorites. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's offensive play, which could potentially overwhelm Lens, given Marseille's recent high-scoring performances. Football fans should keep an eye on how Lens attempts to counter Marseille's attacking threats.