Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lorient vs Toulouse Prediction
Lorient
Home Team
23%
VS
Toulouse
Away Team
57%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5:
55%
Under 2.5:
45%
Goal:
60%
No Goal:
40%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Marseille | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | Lens | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Lille | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Monaco | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | Lyon | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Nice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rennes | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Brest | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Angers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Nantes | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Lorient | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 9 |
| 17 | Metz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Lorient
- Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 2)
Toulouse
- Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lorient
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.50
# Clean Sheets:
0
Toulouse
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.04
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.81
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Lorient and Toulouse is predicted to favor Toulouse, with a 57.0% probability of an away win. Lorient, meanwhile, holds a 23.0% chance of securing a home victory. The match is also expected to have more than 2.5 goals, with a 55.0% probability for this outcome. Currently, Toulouse sits in 9th place in Ligue 1, while Lorient is struggling in 16th place, fighting to avoid relegation.
Match Analysis
Lorient's recent form has been concerning, with their last three matches yielding two losses and one draw. They were defeated 3-0 by Lens and 2-0 by Angers, though they did manage a credible 1-1 draw at home against Paris SG. Their advanced metrics indicate an average of 2.4 goals conceded per match in the last five games, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Toulouse.
On the other hand, Toulouse has shown a more resilient side, despite not securing a win in their last three matches. They held both Le Havre and Rennes to draws, with a goalless draw against Le Havre and a 2-2 draw against Rennes, but suffered a narrow 1-0 loss to Monaco. Their defensive solidity is highlighted by two clean sheets in their last five matches, alongside a relatively lower average of 1.0 goals conceded per match.
Final Prediction
Toulouse's edge in this matchup largely stems from their more consistent defensive performances and their ability to avoid defeat in recent games. With Lorient's defensive struggles and Toulouse's capability to keep clean sheets, the visitors seem poised to capitalize on their host's weaknesses. Keep an eye on Toulouse's defensive organization, as it might just be the key factor that secures them the win in this encounter.