Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Rennes Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lyon

Home Team
55%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 30 22 3 5 68 25 43 69
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 60 32 28 63
3 Lyon 31 17 6 8 48 32 16 57
4 Lille 31 17 6 8 50 34 16 57
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 54 42 12 56
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 59 41 18 53
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 54 47 7 51
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 49 39 10 46
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 42 47 -5 41
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 43 44 -1 38
11 Brest 30 10 8 12 41 47 -6 38
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 40 47 -7 38
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 26 43 -17 34
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 29 42 -13 31
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 35 57 -22 30
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 27 42 -15 25
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 26 51 -25 20
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 31 70 -39 16

Recent Trends

Lyon W W W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)

Rennes W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 1.92
Clean Sheets 2

Rennes

xG (avg) 2.07
xGA (avg) 1.44
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 55.0% chance of victory compared to 23.0% for Rennes and 22.0% for the draw. The model points to an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% and both teams expected to find the net (60.0% chance of “goal”). In the table, Lyon sit 3rd on 57 points, one place and one point ahead of 5th‑placed Rennes on 56, underlining how tight this Champions League race is.

Match Analysis

Both sides arrive in outstanding form. Lyon have put together three straight wins – 3-2 vs Auxerre, 2-1 away at Paris SG, and 2-0 against Lorient – showing they can edge tight matches and also keep things under control when needed. They’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five, with two clean sheets, but the xG against figure of 1.916 per game hints that they’ve allowed more chances than the raw goals against suggest. Rennes, though, are flying even higher in attack: three wins on the bounce, beating Nantes 2-1, Strasbourg 3-0 away and Angers 2-1. They’ve averaged a huge 3.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, backed by 2.074 xG for and 1.444 xG against per match, and also have two clean sheets in that spell. Rennes look the more explosive side going forward, while Lyon’s home edge and league position give them the slight upper hand in the prediction.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 63.0% fits the recent patterns. Two of Lyon’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Auxerre, 2-1 at PSG), with only the 2-0 vs Lorient staying under, and they average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded with xG of 1.81 for and 1.916 against. All three of Rennes’ recent games have gone over 2.5, and their 3.0 goals scored per match, supported by 2.074 xG, point strongly towards another high‑scoring affair rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.79, suggesting around 10 corners in what should be a front‑foot game. Lyon’s last three have produced 9, 18 and 10 total corners respectively, while Rennes’ games have seen 14, 11 and 14 – consistently high numbers, especially for a side that attacks with volume. With both teams pushing forward and racking up corner counts recently, the predicted corners figure aligns with two proactive, attack‑minded outfits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 25.13 expected shots in total, again backing up the idea of a lively contest. Lyon’s last three outings have featured 21, 29 and 23 combined shots, while Rennes’ have seen 38, 35 and 21 – remarkable shot volumes in two of those matches. Given Rennes’ strong xG of 2.074 per game and Lyon’s 1.81, the expected shots tally looks consistent with two sides that generate frequent attempts on goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lyon wins by X goals. Negative = Rennes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lyon vs Rennes with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lyon vs Rennes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Lyon -0.24, a narrow expected spread that reflects a slight home advantage rather than dominance. Over their last three, Lyon are +4 on goal difference (7 scored, 3 conceded), while Rennes are +5 (7 scored, 2 conceded), showing both are in positive scoring form. With Lyon’s higher win probability (55.0%) but Rennes’ formidable attack, the expected spread suggests a tight Lyon edge rather than a comfortable margin.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s home status, league position and recent ability to win close games give them the marginal edge, but Rennes’ attacking numbers mean this is far from a foregone conclusion. The key factor to watch will be how Lyon’s defence copes with Rennes’ sustained shot volume and 3.0-goals‑per‑game form; if they bend but don’t break, the prediction of a narrow home win in a high‑scoring match looks well founded.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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