Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Brest Prediction
Marseille
Home Team
93%
VS
Brest
Away Team
3%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
48%
No Goal:
52%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Marseille | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | Lens | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Lille | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Monaco | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | Lyon | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Nice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rennes | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Brest | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Angers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Nantes | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Lorient | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 9 |
| 17 | Metz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Marseille
- Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 6 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
Brest
- Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Marseille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.70
# Clean Sheets:
2
Brest
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.68
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Marseille is heavily favored to clinch victory against Brest with a commanding 93% probability of winning this encounter. The likelihood of the match featuring more than 2.5 goals is relatively balanced at 49%, but predictions lean towards fewer goals being scored. Marseille sits at the 2nd position in Ligue 1, while Brest finds themselves in 13th place, considerably lower in the standings.
Match Analysis
Marseille's form over the last three matches has been somewhat mixed, recording a win against Auxerre, a draw with Angers, and a narrow defeat to Lens. Despite the blemish in their recent results, Marseille's goal-scoring prowess remains evident, with an average of 3.6 goals scored across their last five games. Defensively, they have been relatively solid, conceding an average of 1.2 goals and securing two clean sheets in this period.
Brest, on the other hand, has struggled to find form, failing to score in their last three matches and suffering losses against Le Havre and Paris SG, with a goalless draw against Lyon as their only positive result. Their offensive struggles are highlighted by an average of just 1.2 goals scored in the last five games, while defensively, they have been leaking goals, conceding an average of 1.8 per match.
Final Prediction
Marseille's strong attacking metrics and superior league position give them a significant advantage over Brest. Their ability to maintain a robust defense while consistently finding the back of the net makes them the favorites in this matchup. A key aspect to watch will be whether Marseille can capitalize on Brest's defensive vulnerabilities to secure a decisive victory.