Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Lens Prediction

Marseille

Home Team
54%
VS

Lens

Away Team
23%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 18 14 1 3 32 13 19 43
2 Paris SG 18 13 3 2 40 15 25 42
3 Marseille 18 11 2 5 41 19 22 35
4 Lyon 18 10 3 5 27 18 9 33
5 Lille 18 10 2 6 33 25 8 32
6 Rennes 18 8 7 3 30 25 5 31
7 Strasbourg 18 8 3 7 28 22 6 27
8 Toulouse 18 7 5 6 29 23 6 26
9 Monaco 18 7 2 9 28 33 -5 23
10 Brest 18 6 4 8 24 29 -5 22
11 Angers 18 6 4 8 20 25 -5 22
12 Lorient 18 5 7 6 23 30 -7 22
13 Paris FC 18 5 4 9 24 32 -8 19
14 Le Havre 18 4 7 7 16 24 -8 19
15 Nice 18 5 3 10 21 35 -14 18
16 Nantes 18 3 5 10 17 30 -13 14
17 Auxerre 18 3 3 12 14 28 -14 12
18 Metz 18 3 3 12 19 40 -21 12

Recent Trends

Marseille ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)

Lens ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Marseille and Lens is predicted to favor the home team, Marseille, with a 54% probability of winning. Lens, currently topping the league, have a 23% chance of victory, as does the likelihood of a draw. With a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, fans can anticipate a high-scoring encounter. Marseille sits in third place, closely chasing Lens, who leads the table with a narrow margin.

Match Analysis

Marseille's recent form has been a mixed bag, with two wins and one defeat in their last three matches. They secured a dominant 5-2 away victory against Angers but suffered a 2-0 home loss to Nantes before bouncing back with a narrow 1-0 win over Monaco. Their ability to score goals is evident, averaging 1.6 goals per game over the last five matches, but they have also been prone to conceding, averaging 1.2 goals against per match. Lens, on the other hand, have been in stellar form, winning their last three games without conceding a single goal. Their victories include a solid 1-0 win over Auxerre, a 3-0 away triumph against Toulouse, and a 2-0 success against Nice. Lens has been prolific, averaging 2.2 goals per game while maintaining a strong defensive record. With three clean sheets in their last five matches, their defensive solidity will be crucial against Marseille's attacking threat.

Final Prediction

Marseille's home advantage and their ability to score frequently give them an edge in this matchup. However, Lens's defensive resilience and recent winning streak pose a significant challenge. A key factor to watch will be how Marseille's attack fares against Lens's formidable defense, which could ultimately determine the outcome of this intriguing encounter.