Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction

Marseille

Home Team
90%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 13 9 3 1 27 11 16 30
2 Marseille 13 9 1 3 33 12 21 28
3 Lens 13 9 1 3 22 11 11 28
4 Lille 13 7 2 4 27 17 10 23
5 Strasbourg 13 7 1 5 24 17 7 22
6 Rennes 13 5 6 2 23 18 5 21
7 Lyon 13 6 3 4 18 15 3 21
8 Monaco 13 6 2 5 25 25 0 20
9 Nice 13 5 2 6 18 23 -5 17
10 Toulouse 13 4 4 5 18 17 1 16
11 Angers 13 4 4 5 11 15 -4 16
12 Paris FC 13 4 2 7 20 25 -5 14
13 Le Havre 13 3 5 5 13 20 -7 14
14 Brest 13 3 4 6 17 23 -6 13
15 Nantes 13 2 5 6 12 19 -7 11
16 Lorient 13 2 5 6 15 27 -12 11
17 Metz 13 3 2 8 14 30 -16 11
18 Auxerre 13 2 2 9 7 19 -12 8

Recent Trends

Marseille ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)

Toulouse ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.63
# Clean Sheets: 2

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.15
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.87
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Marseille and Toulouse is heavily tipped in favor of the home side, with a 90.0% probability of victory for Marseille. The match is also expected to see more than 2.5 goals, with a 56.0% likelihood. Currently, Marseille holds the second position in Ligue 1 with 28 points, while Toulouse sits in 10th place with 16 points.

Match Analysis

Marseille comes into this match riding high on a three-game winning streak, showcasing their offensive prowess with an impressive 5-1 victory over Nice, a 3-0 home triumph against Brest, and a solid 1-0 away win at Auxerre. Their recent performances indicate a strong attacking front, averaging 3.2 goals scored while conceding only 0.8 goals per game over their last five matches. Additionally, their advanced metrics support their dominance, with an average expected goals of 2.698 in these games, highlighting their efficient attacking play. In contrast, Toulouse has struggled to find consistent form, with two draws and a loss in their last three games. They managed a goalless draw against Le Havre and shared the spoils with Lorient in a 1-1 draw, but suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Angers at home. Toulouse has found the net less frequently, averaging just 0.8 goals per game, while their defensive frailties are evident with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per match. Their expected goals statistics (1.154 for and 1.872 against) suggest they may face challenges against a potent Marseille attack.

Final Prediction

Marseille's recent form and attacking statistics give them a clear edge over Toulouse. Their ability to score prolifically and maintain a solid defense makes them the firm favorites in this encounter. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's attacking efficiency, as they look to capitalize on Toulouse's defensive vulnerabilities.