Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Lyon Prediction

Metz

Home Team
3%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
93%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 18 14 1 3 32 13 19 43
2 Paris SG 18 13 3 2 40 15 25 42
3 Marseille 18 11 2 5 41 19 22 35
4 Lyon 18 10 3 5 27 18 9 33
5 Lille 18 10 2 6 33 25 8 32
6 Rennes 18 8 7 3 30 25 5 31
7 Strasbourg 18 8 3 7 28 22 6 27
8 Toulouse 18 7 5 6 29 23 6 26
9 Monaco 18 7 2 9 28 33 -5 23
10 Brest 18 6 4 8 24 29 -5 22
11 Angers 18 6 4 8 20 25 -5 22
12 Lorient 18 5 7 6 23 30 -7 22
13 Paris FC 18 5 4 9 24 32 -8 19
14 Le Havre 18 4 7 7 16 24 -8 19
15 Nice 18 5 3 10 21 35 -14 18
16 Nantes 18 3 5 10 17 30 -13 14
17 Auxerre 18 3 3 12 14 28 -14 12
18 Metz 18 3 3 12 19 40 -21 12

Recent Trends

Metz ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)

Lyon ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.53
# Clean Sheets: 0

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.02
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.40
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming encounter between Metz and Lyon is expected to heavily favor Lyon, with a 93% probability of the away team securing a victory. Currently, Lyon is positioned 4th in the Ligue 1 standings, while Metz is struggling at the bottom, ranked 18th. The match is predicted to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a moderate probability of 46%.

Match Analysis

In their recent outings, Metz has had a challenging time securing victories, with a record of two losses and one draw in their last three games. They managed a 1-1 draw against Lorient and suffered defeats at the hands of Strasbourg and Paris SG. Metz's defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game over their last five matches, which is a worrying trend for the team. Despite creating opportunities, as indicated by their expected goals of 1.254, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in recent games. Conversely, Lyon is riding high on a three-game winning streak, having secured victories against Brest, Monaco, and Le Havre. Lyon's defense has been relatively solid, with two clean sheets in their last five games and conceding an average of just 1 goal per match. Their offensive output also shows promise, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per game. Lyon's ability to capitalize on their chances is evident from their recent performances, which gives them a significant advantage going into this matchup.

Final Prediction

Lyon's current form and defensive solidity offer them a clear advantage over Metz, who are struggling at the bottom of the standings. Lyon's recent success and ability to maintain clean sheets highlight their robust strategy and execution on the field. A key factor to watch in the game will be Lyon's ability to break down Metz's defense and maintain their winning momentum.