Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Marseille Prediction

Metz

Home Team
4%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
90%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
2 Lyon 6 5 0 1 8 3 5 15
3 Marseille 6 4 0 2 12 5 7 12
4 Monaco 6 4 0 2 14 10 4 12
5 Strasbourg 6 4 0 2 9 7 2 12
6 Lille 6 3 1 2 13 9 4 10
7 Lens 6 3 1 2 8 5 3 10
8 Rennes 6 2 3 1 7 8 -1 9
9 Brest 6 2 1 3 11 11 0 7
10 Toulouse 6 2 1 3 9 11 -2 7
11 Paris FC 6 2 1 3 10 13 -3 7
12 Nice 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Lorient 6 2 1 3 9 14 -5 7
14 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 4 8 -4 6
15 Le Havre 6 1 2 3 6 8 -2 5
16 Nantes 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
17 Angers 6 1 2 3 3 6 -3 5
18 Metz 6 0 2 4 5 13 -8 2

Recent Trends

Metz ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 3)

Marseille ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorient (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.04
# Clean Sheets: 1

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.86
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Metz and Marseille is expected to heavily favor the away team, Marseille, with an overwhelming 90.0% probability of victory. In contrast, Metz's chances of securing a win at home are a slim 4.0%. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw stands at 5.0%. With a predicted outcome leaning towards over 2.5 goals, this game promises to be an exciting one for fans. Currently, Marseille sits in a strong 3rd position in Ligue 1, while Metz languishes at the bottom in 18th place.

Match Analysis

In recent performances, Metz has struggled to find its footing, recording no wins in their last three matches. They managed two draws against Le Havre and Angers, and suffered a heavy 5-2 defeat away at Monaco. Metz's advanced metrics reflect their challenges, with an average of just 0.33 goals scored per game and a higher average of 0.67 goals conceded. Despite creating opportunities with an average expected goals of 0.78, their defense has been porous, with expected goals against standing at 1.04. Marseille, on the other hand, has displayed a more consistent form, winning all three of their latest fixtures. They secured a notable victory against Paris SG and delivered convincing performances against Strasbourg and Lorient, scoring a total of 7 goals across these matches. Their advanced metrics illustrate a potent attack, averaging 0.67 goals scored per game, with a significant expected goals figure of 1.65, indicating their ability to create and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Defensively, Marseille has shown resilience, maintaining two clean sheets in their last five outings.

Final Prediction

Marseille's recent form and offensive capabilities give them a significant edge over Metz in this encounter. Their ability to create scoring opportunities and maintain a sturdy defense positions them well against Metz, who have been struggling to find form. Fans should pay close attention to Marseille's attacking prowess, which could be the decisive factor in securing a comprehensive victory.