Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Rennes Prediction - 28 Nov 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Metz
Home Team
12%
VS
Rennes
Away Team
75%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5:
57%
Under 2.5:
43%
Goal:
57%
No Goal:
43%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 30 |
| 2 | Marseille | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 28 |
| 3 | Lens | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 28 |
| 4 | Lille | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Strasbourg | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Rennes | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Lyon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Monaco | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Nice | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Angers | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Brest | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 | Nantes | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Lorient | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 11 |
| 17 | Metz | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 11 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 8 |
Recent Trends
Metz
- Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 6)
Rennes
- Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Metz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.42
# Clean Sheets:
2
Rennes
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.02
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Metz and Rennes is heavily tilted in favor of the visitors, with a 75.0% probability of Rennes securing a victory. The likelihood of a home win for Metz stands at a mere 12.0%, while a draw is considered a 13.0% possibility. This match is anticipated to be action-packed, with a 57.0% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. In the current Ligue 1 standings, Rennes sits comfortably in 6th place with 21 points, whereas Metz is struggling in 17th position with 11 points.
Match Analysis
In recent performances, Metz has shown some resilience, particularly in their last two games where they secured victories against Nice and Nantes, both with a scoreline of 2-1 and 2-0, respectively. However, their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in a 3-2 defeat against Brest. Metz's average metrics in their last five outings reflect a balanced, albeit low-scoring, approach, with 1.0 goals scored and conceded per game. They have managed to keep two clean sheets, indicating occasional defensive solidity.
On the other hand, Rennes comes into this fixture on a strong winning streak, having convincingly defeated Monaco and Strasbourg with a 4-1 scoreline in both matches, and securing a narrow victory against Paris FC. Rennes has been more prolific in front of goal, averaging 1.6 goals per match over the past five games, although they have also conceded an average of 1.4 goals. Their offensive prowess is further supported by an expected goals average of 1.404, suggesting they are creating quality chances consistently.
Final Prediction
Rennes' superior form and attacking efficiency give them the edge in this matchup against Metz. Their recent high-scoring victories and better overall standing in the league make them the favorites. A key factor to watch will be Rennes' ability to capitalize on their goal-scoring opportunities, which could be the decisive element in securing another three points.
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