Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Monaco

Home Team
62%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.4

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 49 34 15 53
4 Marseille 29 16 4 9 58 38 20 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 43 29 14 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 49 41 8 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 50 43 7 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 29 9 11 9 38 44 -6 38
10 Toulouse 29 10 7 12 39 39 0 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 37 45 -8 35
13 Angers 29 9 6 14 25 39 -14 33
14 Le Havre 29 6 11 12 24 37 -13 29
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 34 56 -22 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 23 37 -14 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 24 45 -21 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 26 63 -37 15

Recent Trends

Monaco L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)

Auxerre D D W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

xG (avg) 2.13
xGA (avg) 1.34
Clean Sheets 1

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.32
xGA (avg) 0.88
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco are clear favourites at home, with a 62.0% chance of victory against an Auxerre side given just an 18.0% probability, and the draw at 19.0%. The model points towards a home win and an “over 2.5” goals outcome (59.0% probability), suggesting an open game. In the table, Monaco sit 7th on 49 points and pushing for Europe, while Auxerre are 16th on 24 points and fighting to avoid the relegation places.

Match Analysis

Monaco come in from a mixed but lively run: back‑to‑back 2-1 wins over Marseille and Lyon were followed by a heavy 4-1 defeat away to leaders Paris FC. Those three matches underline Monaco’s attacking punch — five goals scored — but also their defensive vulnerability, conceding six. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, backed by 2.13 expected goals for and 1.344 against, numbers that paint a picture of a side generally on the front foot and creating plenty. Auxerre, down in 16th, are grinding for survival and arrive unbeaten in three: a 3-0 home win over Brest and two tight draws, 1-1 at Le Havre and 0-0 at home to Nantes. They’ve tightened up well, with three clean sheets in their last five matches and only 1.0 goal conceded on average, supported by a low 0.884 xG against. Offensively, they are modest but steady, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.32 xG for in that same span, suggesting they can pose problems if Monaco switch off.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 59.0%, and recent form supports that call. Two of Monaco’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Paris FC, 2-1 vs Marseille, 2-1 vs Lyon), underlining how often their matches open up. Auxerre are more cautious, with just one of their last three going over — the 3-0 win against Brest — but their averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, plus 1.32 xG for, suggest they can contribute at least once to the scoreline, especially against a Monaco team that plays on the front foot.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.51 total corners, which fits with what both teams have shown recently. Monaco’s last three produced 12, 8 and 8 total corners respectively, with their attacking style sometimes forcing a high number, as seen in the 11-1 corner count (against) at Paris FC. Auxerre’s last three yielded 5, 10 and 9 corners, reflecting a balanced approach: they don’t camp in the opposition box but do get forward in spells. Given the expected Monaco pressure and Auxerre’s need to counter, a total near the predicted corners figure around 9–10 looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 25.39, in line with recent volumes for both sides. Monaco’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 31 (vs Paris FC), 26 (vs Marseille) and 36 (vs Lyon), highlighting how their matches often become end‑to‑end. Auxerre’s fixtures have been a bit quieter — 18 shots vs Brest, 22 at Le Havre, 18 vs Nantes — but their 1.32 xG for and Monaco’s 2.13 xG for suggest that a shots prediction in the mid‑20s is reasonable for another chance‑filled encounter.

Final Prediction

Monaco’s superior league position, stronger attacking metrics and home advantage give them a clear edge over an Auxerre side still battling to stay clear of the bottom two. Auxerre’s improved defensive discipline means this won’t be a walkover, but if Monaco maintain their recent chance creation, their quality in the final third should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Auxerre’s compact defence can withstand Monaco’s sustained pressure over 90 minutes.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel