Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Lyon Prediction

Monaco

Home Team
33%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
46%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 16 12 1 3 28 13 15 37
2 Paris SG 16 11 3 2 35 14 21 36
3 Marseille 16 10 2 4 36 15 21 32
4 Lille 16 10 2 4 33 20 13 32
5 Lyon 16 8 3 5 22 16 6 27
6 Rennes 16 7 6 3 27 24 3 27
7 Strasbourg 16 7 2 7 25 20 5 23
8 Toulouse 16 6 5 5 24 19 5 23
9 Monaco 16 7 2 7 26 27 -1 23
10 Angers 16 6 4 6 17 18 -1 22
11 Brest 16 5 4 7 21 27 -6 19
12 Lorient 16 4 6 6 19 28 -9 18
13 Nice 16 5 2 9 19 29 -10 17
14 Paris FC 16 4 4 8 21 29 -8 16
15 Le Havre 16 3 6 7 13 22 -9 15
16 Auxerre 16 3 3 10 14 25 -11 12
17 Nantes 16 2 5 9 14 28 -14 11
18 Metz 16 3 2 11 17 37 -20 11

Recent Trends

Monaco ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 4)

Lyon ✅ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.52
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.48
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

With a 46.0% probability, Lyon is favored to win their upcoming clash against Monaco. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with a 57.0% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. Currently, Lyon is positioned 5th in the Ligue 1 standings, while Monaco is in 9th place.

Match Analysis

Monaco's recent form has been inconsistent, with two back-to-back losses against Marseille and Brest, both ending 0-1. However, they did manage a significant victory over Paris SG, winning 1-0 at home, showing their capability to compete against top teams. Monaco's key metrics reflect a team that creates scoring opportunities (1.94 expected goals per game) but struggles to convert them into actual goals, averaging just 1.0 goals per game over their last five matches. Defensively, they've conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game, highlighting a vulnerability that Lyon might exploit. Conversely, Lyon has shown a more stable form, winning two out of their last three matches. They secured a 1-0 win against Le Havre and a convincing 3-0 victory over Nantes, only stumbling in a 0-1 away loss to Lorient. Lyon's defense has been notably solid, achieving three clean sheets in their last five matches. Offensively, they mirror Monaco's scoring average with 1.0 goals per game but have demonstrated efficiency in defense, conceding fewer goals than expected (1.476 expected goals against).

Final Prediction

Lyon's recent defensive solidity and ability to secure clean sheets give them a slight edge over Monaco, who have struggled to find consistency. A key aspect to watch during the game will be Lyon's defensive organization, which could prove decisive if they manage to neutralize Monaco’s attacking threats. Football fans can anticipate a competitive encounter with the potential for multiple goals, making it a must-watch in this Ligue 1 fixture.