Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Paris SG Prediction

Monaco

Home Team
4%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
90%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 13 9 3 1 27 11 16 30
2 Marseille 13 9 1 3 33 12 21 28
3 Lens 13 9 1 3 22 11 11 28
4 Lille 13 7 2 4 27 17 10 23
5 Strasbourg 13 7 1 5 24 17 7 22
6 Rennes 13 5 6 2 23 18 5 21
7 Lyon 13 6 3 4 18 15 3 21
8 Monaco 13 6 2 5 25 25 0 20
9 Nice 13 5 2 6 18 23 -5 17
10 Toulouse 13 4 4 5 18 17 1 16
11 Angers 13 4 4 5 11 15 -4 16
12 Paris FC 13 4 2 7 20 25 -5 14
13 Le Havre 13 3 5 5 13 20 -7 14
14 Brest 13 3 4 6 17 23 -6 13
15 Nantes 13 2 5 6 12 19 -7 11
16 Lorient 13 2 5 6 15 27 -12 11
17 Metz 13 3 2 8 14 30 -16 11
18 Auxerre 13 2 2 9 7 19 -12 8

Recent Trends

Monaco ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 5 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)

Paris SG ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.61
# Clean Sheets: 1

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.71
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.04
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming clash between Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), the odds heavily favor PSG with a 90.0% probability of winning. The likelihood of Monaco pulling off a victory is a mere 4.0%, while a draw stands at 6.0%. With PSG currently leading the Ligue 1 table and Monaco sitting in 8th place, the match is expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a 61.0% probability for that outcome.

Match Analysis

Monaco has struggled significantly in their recent performances, suffering three consecutive defeats. They lost 1-4 to Rennes, 1-4 to Lens, and 0-1 to Paris FC, indicating a troubling trend in both defense and goal-scoring capability. Despite an average of 1.8 goals scored over their past five games, their defensive frailties are evident as they also concede at the same rate. Their expected goals statistics show they are creating decent chances (2.512), but their inability to convert these into goals has been costly. Conversely, PSG has been in formidable form, winning their last three games. They secured a solid 3-0 victory against Le Havre, edged Lyon 3-2 in a tough away fixture, and maintained a clean sheet in a 1-0 win over Nice. With an average of 1.6 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded in their last five matches, PSG's defense has been particularly resolute with three clean sheets. Their expected goals metrics suggest they efficiently convert their opportunities (1.708), bolstering their standing as the league leaders.

Final Prediction

PSG's edge in this match lies in their recent form and defensive solidity, which starkly contrasts with Monaco's ongoing struggles. The Parisians' ability to capitalize on their chances and maintain a tight defense will likely prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be PSG's attacking efficiency against Monaco's vulnerable defense, which could determine the flow and final outcome of the game.