Ligue 1 2025-2026: Paris SG vs Rennes Prediction

Paris SG

Home Team
95%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 14 10 1 3 24 12 12 31
2 Paris SG 14 9 3 2 27 12 15 30
3 Marseille 14 9 2 3 35 14 21 29
4 Lille 14 8 2 4 28 17 11 26
5 Rennes 14 6 6 2 24 18 6 24
6 Lyon 14 7 3 4 21 15 6 24
7 Monaco 14 7 2 5 26 25 1 23
8 Strasbourg 14 7 1 6 25 19 6 22
9 Toulouse 14 4 5 5 20 19 1 17
10 Nice 14 5 2 7 19 26 -7 17
11 Brest 14 4 4 6 19 24 -5 16
12 Angers 14 4 4 6 12 17 -5 16
13 Paris FC 14 4 3 7 21 26 -5 15
14 Le Havre 14 3 5 6 13 21 -8 14
15 Lorient 14 3 5 6 18 28 -10 14
16 Nantes 14 2 5 7 12 22 -10 11
17 Metz 14 3 2 9 14 31 -17 11
18 Auxerre 14 2 3 9 8 20 -12 9

Recent Trends

Paris SG ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)

Rennes ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.11
# Clean Sheets: 2

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.96
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) is predicted to secure a victory against Rennes with an overwhelming probability of 95.0%. The match is expected to feature more than 2.5 goals, with a 62.0% probability, suggesting an exciting and high-scoring encounter. PSG currently holds the second position in Ligue 1, just behind Lens, while Rennes is in fifth place, aiming to climb higher in the standings.

Match Analysis

In recent performances, PSG has shown resilience and dominance, winning two of their last three matches, including a commanding 3-0 victory against Le Havre at home and a 3-2 triumph over Lyon away. Despite a narrow 1-0 loss to Monaco, PSG has demonstrated a consistent goal-scoring ability, with an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five outings. Their defense has been solid as well, conceding just 0.6 goals on average, supported by two clean sheets in the same period. Rennes, on the other hand, is riding high on a three-game winning streak, having defeated Metz, Monaco, and Paris FC. They have been effective both at home and away, with their most notable victory being a 4-1 win against Monaco. Rennes has averaged 1.6 goals per game over the last five matches but has been susceptible defensively, conceding 1.2 goals on average. Their expected goals conceded figure of 1.96 indicates potential vulnerabilities at the back.

Final Prediction

PSG is favored to win due to their superior form, home advantage, and robust attacking and defensive metrics. Their ability to score goals consistently combined with a solid defensive setup gives them a significant edge over Rennes. A key factor to watch will be PSG's attacking prowess, particularly how they exploit Rennes' defensive weaknesses to maintain their push for the top spot in Ligue 1.