Ligue 1 2025-2026: Rennes vs Paris SG Prediction - 13 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Rennes

Home Team
4%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
91%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Rennes L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 0)

Paris SG W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.24
# Clean Sheets: 1

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are clear favourites here, with a huge 91.0% predicted probability of an away win against Rennes, who are given just 4.0% at Roazhon Park (draw: 5.0%). Paris SG sit top of Ligue 1 with 51 points, while Rennes are 6th on 31 points, trying to stay in the European hunt. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Rennes come into this one on a worrying three‑match losing streak. They were well beaten 3-1 at Lens and 4-0 at Monaco, then lost 2-0 at home to Lorient despite dominating shots (22-6) and corners (9-3). That hints at a side creating volume but lacking efficiency and defensive stability. Over the last five games, Rennes have actually averaged 2.4 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, backed by strong xG figures (2.432 xG for, 1.242 xG against), but recent results show how quickly things can unravel when chances aren’t taken. Paris SG, by contrast, are in ruthless form with three straight wins: 5-0 against Marseille, 2-1 away at Strasbourg, and 1-0 at Auxerre. They’ve controlled those games both in shots (22, 13, and 16 attempts respectively) and in corners (5, 6, and 7 won). Over their last five matches they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG numbers of 1.698 for and just 0.806 against, plus three clean sheets. That combination of attacking consistency and defensive control explains why they are such heavy favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% reflects both teams’ recent goal patterns. Two of Rennes’ last three games went over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Lens, 4-0 vs Monaco), with only the 2-0 loss to Lorient staying under. For Paris SG, only one of their last three crossed the 2.5 line (the 5-0 win over Marseille), with the 2-1 at Strasbourg and 1-0 at Auxerre both tight. Still, Rennes’ average of 2.4 goals scored and Paris SG’s 1.8, supported by relatively high xG for both sides, point slightly more towards an open scoreline rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.35, suggesting a match around the 9–10 corner mark. Rennes’ last three outings saw corner counts of 4-4, 2-5, and 9-3, showing that when they are on the front foot at home, they can rack up corners quickly. Paris SG have been steady in this department with 5-2, 6-5, and 7-2, reflecting an attacking side that spends a lot of time in the opposition half. Given both teams’ tendency to push forward, this corners prediction fits a game where Paris SG’s pressure and Rennes’ counters generate a decent but not extreme number of set‑piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.64, indicating a relatively busy attacking game. Rennes’ recent shot numbers (14, 8, and 22 taken; 10, 14, and 6 faced) show a team that can either be pinned back away or dominate at home. Paris SG have attempted 22, 13, and 16 shots while limiting opponents to 9, 9, and 8, aligning well with the shots prediction and their superior xG profile. With both sides creating chances and Paris SG especially efficient in turning shots into goals, a mid‑20s figure for expected shots looks well supported.

Final Prediction

Paris SG’s league-leading position, stronger recent form, and better xG balance give them a clear edge over a Rennes side stumbling through three consecutive defeats. The key factor to watch will be whether Rennes can convert their home shot and corner volume into real threat, or if Paris SG’s clinical attack and tight defence simply overpower them again.

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