Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
68%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 10 6 3 1 20 9 11 21
2 Monaco 10 6 2 2 23 16 7 20
3 Marseille 10 6 1 3 24 11 13 19
4 Strasbourg 10 6 1 3 21 12 9 19
5 Lyon 10 6 1 3 16 12 4 19
6 Lens 10 6 1 3 14 10 4 19
7 Lille 10 5 2 3 22 13 9 17
8 Nice 10 5 2 3 16 15 1 17
9 Toulouse 10 4 2 4 17 15 2 14
10 Rennes 10 2 6 2 14 16 -2 12
11 Le Havre 10 3 3 4 12 16 -4 12
12 Paris FC 10 3 2 5 17 20 -3 11
13 Angers 10 2 4 4 8 14 -6 10
14 Brest 10 2 3 5 14 18 -4 9
15 Nantes 10 2 3 5 10 15 -5 9
16 Lorient 10 2 3 5 13 22 -9 9
17 Auxerre 10 2 1 7 7 16 -9 7
18 Metz 10 1 2 7 8 26 -18 5

Recent Trends

Toulouse ⚪ ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 2)

Le Havre ✅ ✅ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.29
# Clean Sheets: 1

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming clash between Toulouse and Le Havre, Toulouse is heavily favored to secure a victory with a 68.0% probability. The game is expected to have a lower scoring outcome, with a 50.0% chance of under 2.5 goals. Toulouse currently sits in 9th position in Ligue 1, while Le Havre is just behind in 11th, setting the stage for an intriguing mid-table encounter.

Match Analysis

Toulouse has shown a mixed bag of results in their recent performances. They managed a solid 4-0 victory against Metz at home, but could only muster a draw against Rennes and suffered a narrow defeat to Monaco. Their recent form is characterized by an average of 2.6 goals scored per game, but they also conceded an average of 2.0 goals. This indicates a potential vulnerability in defense, though their attacking prowess, supported by an expected goals tally of nearly 2 per match, remains a significant threat. Le Havre, on the other hand, has had a slightly more erratic form. While they secured back-to-back wins against Brest and Auxerre, they were heavily beaten by Marseille. They have averaged just 0.8 goals per game, but have managed an impressive three clean sheets in their last five matches, showcasing a solid defensive structure. However, with an expected goals conceded figure of nearly 1.7 per game, their defense might be tested against a more potent Toulouse attack.

Final Prediction

Toulouse appears to have the upper hand in this matchup, largely due to their stronger offensive capabilities and home advantage. Their ability to score goals consistently could be the key factor that tips the balance in their favor. A key aspect to watch will be whether Le Havre's defense can withstand the pressure from Toulouse's attacking lineup, potentially turning the game into a closely contested affair.