Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Lens Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
25%
VS

Lens

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 16 12 1 3 28 13 15 37
2 Paris SG 16 11 3 2 35 14 21 36
3 Marseille 16 10 2 4 36 15 21 32
4 Lille 16 10 2 4 33 20 13 32
5 Lyon 16 8 3 5 22 16 6 27
6 Rennes 16 7 6 3 27 24 3 27
7 Strasbourg 16 7 2 7 25 20 5 23
8 Toulouse 16 6 5 5 24 19 5 23
9 Monaco 16 7 2 7 26 27 -1 23
10 Angers 16 6 4 6 17 18 -1 22
11 Brest 16 5 4 7 21 27 -6 19
12 Lorient 16 4 6 6 19 28 -9 18
13 Nice 16 5 2 9 19 29 -10 17
14 Paris FC 16 4 4 8 21 29 -8 16
15 Le Havre 16 3 6 7 13 22 -9 15
16 Auxerre 16 3 3 10 14 25 -11 12
17 Nantes 16 2 5 9 14 28 -14 11
18 Metz 16 3 2 11 17 37 -20 11

Recent Trends

Toulouse ✅ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lens ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.58
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.57
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.82
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Toulouse and Lens is poised to favor the away team, with a 54.0% probability of Lens securing the victory. In contrast, Toulouse holds a 25.0% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 21.0%. The match is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 48.0% probability of that outcome. Lens currently leads Ligue 1, whereas Toulouse is in the 8th position, making this a significant challenge for the home team.

Match Analysis

Toulouse enters this fixture on a positive note, having remained unbeaten in their last three matches. They recently sealed victories against Paris FC and Strasbourg, while drawing against a strong Marseille side. Their defense has been impressive, conceding only twice in these encounters and achieving two clean sheets. With an average of 1.4 goals scored per game in the last five outings, they show potential in attack but might need to be more clinical against Lens. Lens, on the other hand, is riding high on a three-match winning streak, showcasing their dominance at the top of Ligue 1. Their recent triumphs over Nice, Nantes, and Angers have been marked by consistent scoring, averaging 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches. Despite conceding an average of 1.2 goals, their potent attack, with expected goals at 2.034, stands out as their biggest strength. Maintaining two clean sheets in their last five games also highlights their defensive resilience.

Final Prediction

Lens's edge in this matchup stems from their consistent high-scoring ability and current form as Ligue 1 leaders. Their robust attack and recent winning momentum provide a strong foundation for the expected victory. A key factor to watch will be Lens's ability to break through Toulouse's sturdy defense, which has been a formidable force in recent matches.