Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Metz Prediction
Toulouse
Home Team
71%
VS
Metz
Away Team
13%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
55%
Under 2.5:
45%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Marseille | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Lyon | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Lens | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Lille | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Paris FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Rennes | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Brest | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Lorient | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Metz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Toulouse
- Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 6)
Metz
- Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 5)
- 4th Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Toulouse
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.69
# Clean Sheets:
0
Metz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
3.08
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Toulouse and Metz sees a strong prediction in favor of the home side, Toulouse, with a 71.0% chance of victory. In contrast, Metz has a mere 13.0% probability of securing a win. Fans can anticipate a high-scoring encounter, with a 55.0% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. Currently, Toulouse occupies the 9th spot in the Ligue 1 standings, while Metz finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 18th place.
Match Analysis
Toulouse has experienced a mixed bag of results in their last three matches. They secured a notable away victory against Lyon with a 2-1 scoreline, followed by a thrilling 2-2 draw at home against Nantes. However, they faltered in their recent outing against Auxerre, suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat. Despite this inconsistency, Toulouse has shown resilience in attack, averaging 2.33 goals scored in their last five games, though their defense has proven to be leaky, conceding an average of 2.67 goals.
Metz, on the other hand, is in a troubling slump. Their last three games saw them lose 3-0 at home to Marseille, draw 0-0 against Le Havre, and endure a heavy 5-2 defeat away to Monaco. Metz's defense has been particularly porous, conceding an average of 3.67 goals per game in their recent outings. While they have managed to score an average of 1.33 goals, their defensive frailties are a major concern going into this fixture.
Final Prediction
Toulouse's superior offensive capabilities and home advantage give them the upper hand in this matchup against an out-of-sorts Metz side. Fans should keep an eye on Toulouse's attacking prowess, which could prove decisive. Metz's defense will need to step up significantly if they are to avoid another defeat in what promises to be an engaging and potentially high-scoring affair.