Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Cagliari Prediction

Atalanta

Home Team
89%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Milan 14 9 4 1 22 11 11 31
2 Napoli 14 10 1 3 22 12 10 31
3 Inter 14 10 0 4 32 13 19 30
4 Roma 14 9 0 5 15 8 7 27
5 Bologna 14 7 4 3 23 12 11 25
6 Como 14 6 6 2 19 11 8 24
7 Juventus 14 6 5 3 18 14 4 23
8 Sassuolo 14 6 2 6 19 17 2 20
9 Cremonese 14 5 5 4 18 17 1 20
10 Lazio 14 5 4 5 16 11 5 19
11 Udinese 14 5 3 6 15 22 -7 18
12 Atalanta 14 3 7 4 17 17 0 16
13 Cagliari 14 3 5 6 14 19 -5 14
14 Genoa 14 3 5 6 15 21 -6 14
15 Parma 14 3 5 6 10 17 -7 14
16 Torino 14 3 5 6 14 26 -12 14
17 Lecce 14 3 4 7 10 19 -9 13
18 Pisa 14 1 7 6 10 19 -9 10
19 Verona 14 1 6 7 11 21 -10 9
20 Fiorentina 14 0 6 8 11 24 -13 6

Recent Trends

Atalanta ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)

Cagliari ✅ ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.68
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 1

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.92
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.64
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Based on current analysis, Atalanta is heavily favored to win against Cagliari, with a high probability of 89.0%. The match is expected to witness more than 2.5 goals, given the 50.0% probability for this outcome. In the Serie A standings, Atalanta is positioned at 12th with 16 points, whereas Cagliari sits at 13th with 14 points, making this a critical clash for both teams seeking to climb the table.

Match Analysis

Atalanta's recent performances have been a mixed bag with a win against Fiorentina (2-0) at home, sandwiched between away losses to Verona (1-3) and Napoli (1-3). Despite these setbacks, their home advantage and ability to occasionally secure a clean sheet, as seen against Fiorentina, provide them with a slight edge. The team has averaged only 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches, but an expected goals figure of 1.68 suggests potential for improved scoring. Cagliari, on the other hand, has shown a commendable spirit with a win over Roma (1-0) and a high-scoring draw against Genoa (3-3), though they fell short against Juventus (1-2). They have managed to secure two clean sheets in their last five outings, an indicator of a resilient defense. However, their average expected goals conceded stands at 1.64, suggesting vulnerabilities that Atalanta could exploit.

Final Prediction

Atalanta's high probability of victory is supported by their superior expected goals metrics and a crucial home advantage. A key factor to watch will be Atalanta's ability to capitalize on Cagliari's defensive weaknesses, which could be pivotal in determining the outcome. As both teams vie for a mid-table lift, expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring encounter.