Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Atalanta

Home Team
61%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Atalanta L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Genoa L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.94
xGA (avg) 0.96
Clean Sheets 2

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 61.0% chance of victory against Genoa’s 20.0%, and a 20.0% probability of a draw. Seventh in Serie A on 54 points, Atalanta are pushing for Europe, while 14th‑placed Genoa sit on 39 points and still need to stay clear of the relegation scrap. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% and both teams to score rated 58.0%.

Match Analysis

Atalanta come into this with just one point from their last three games, but the results don’t fully match the performances. They lost 3-2 at Cagliari and 1-0 at home to Juventus, either side of a 1-1 draw away to Roma – a tough run of fixtures. The numbers show they remain productive: 22 shots against Juve and 12 at Cagliari underline their attacking volume, and over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored from a healthy 1.942 expected goals, conceding only 1.0 per game from 0.958 xG and keeping two clean sheets. Genoa, by contrast, have steadied themselves with back‑to‑back 2-1 wins over Pisa and Sassuolo after a 2-0 home defeat to Como. They’ve shown resilience rather than dominance: in those three games they never outshot the opponent by a big margin (9-8 vs Como, 13-12 vs Pisa, 14-15 vs Sassuolo). Their five‑game averages – 0.8 goals scored, 1.0 conceded, from 1.144 xG for and 1.504 xG against – suggest they’re often second best in chance quality, even when results go their way. That underlying gap, especially away to a top‑seven side, is a key factor tilting this fixture towards Atalanta.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 57.0% is supported by the recent scorelines. Two of Atalanta’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 at Cagliari, 1-1 at Roma, 0-1 vs Juventus), while Genoa have been involved in one under and two over 2.5 results (0-2 vs Como, then two 2-1 wins). With Atalanta averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by nearly 2.0 xG created per game, and Genoa allowing 1.504 xG against, the data points to enough chances for the game to clear the 2.5 line rather than finish under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.77, right in line with a lively but not frantic match. Atalanta’s last three have produced 10, 13 and 15 total corners, with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side racking up 13 alone against Juventus, which matches their front‑foot, crossing-heavy style. Genoa’s games have been more modest – 5, 10 and 8 corners in total – but still show a consistent supply of set‑pieces. Taken together, the predicted corners figure suggests we should see around double figures, with Atalanta’s attacking play likely driving the bulk of them.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 26.05 expected shots in total, which matches what these sides have shown recently. Atalanta’s last three games featured 21, 27 and 29 combined attempts, underlining how frequently they turn possession into efforts on goal. Genoa’s fixtures have delivered 17, 25 and 29 total shots, with opponents often getting plenty of looks. With Atalanta’s xG at 1.942 per match and Genoa conceding 1.504 xG, the expected shots tally fits an encounter where the hosts generate a high volume and Genoa contribute enough to keep it competitive.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Atalanta wins by X goals. Negative = Genoa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Atalanta vs Genoa with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Atalanta vs Genoa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Atalanta favoured by +0.74 goals, reflecting both the 61.0% home‑win probability and the difference in underlying numbers. Over their last three, Atalanta’s goal difference is -2 (3 scored, 5 conceded), but that came against strong opposition and with performances suggesting they could have taken more. Genoa are +0 over the same period (4 scored, 4 conceded), yet their lower chance quality and higher xG conceded hint at fragility, especially away. The expected spread therefore aligns with Atalanta’s stronger attack and more solid defensive metrics.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s superior xG profile, home advantage and greater attacking output give them a clear edge over a Genoa side that has been grinding out results despite shaky underlying numbers. The battle to watch will be Atalanta’s high‑volume attack against Genoa’s capacity to absorb pressure and stay in games; if the hosts convert their chances at anything close to recent xG levels, the prediction of a home win and goals on the board should hold.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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