Serie A 2024-2025: Atalanta vs Lecce Prediction

Atalanta

Home Team
94%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
2%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 21 8 4 72 32 40 71
2 Napoli 33 21 8 4 52 25 27 71
3 Atalanta 33 19 7 7 66 30 36 64
4 Bologna 33 16 12 5 52 37 15 60
5 Juventus 33 15 14 4 49 31 18 59
6 Lazio 33 17 8 8 55 43 12 59
7 Roma 33 16 9 8 48 32 16 57
8 Fiorentina 33 16 8 9 51 33 18 56
9 Milan 33 14 9 10 51 38 13 51
10 Torino 33 10 13 10 38 37 1 43
11 Udinese 33 11 7 15 36 48 -12 40
12 Como 33 10 9 14 43 48 -5 39
13 Genoa 33 9 12 12 29 40 -11 39
14 Verona 33 9 5 19 30 60 -30 32
15 Parma 33 6 13 14 38 51 -13 31
16 Cagliari 33 7 9 17 33 49 -16 30
17 Lecce 33 6 8 19 23 55 -32 26
18 Venezia 33 4 13 16 27 46 -19 25
19 Empoli 33 4 13 16 26 52 -26 25
20 Monza 33 2 9 22 25 57 -32 15

Recent Trends

Atalanta ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)

Lecce ❌ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Venezia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.77
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.35
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Serie A clash between Atalanta and Lecce, Atalanta is heavily favored to claim victory with a commanding 94.0% probability. The match is also predicted to feature less than 2.5 goals, with a 45.0% chance of an under 2.5 goals result. Atalanta currently holds the 3rd position in the league standings, while Lecce is struggling in 17th place, teetering on the edge of the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Atalanta comes into this match with a strong recent performance, having won two of their last three games. Notably, they secured a 1-0 victory away against Milan and a convincing 2-0 win at home against Bologna. Their only recent setback was a narrow 0-1 loss to Lazio. Key advanced metrics indicate that while Atalanta has only scored an average of 0.4 goals in their last five games, they have maintained defensive solidity, conceding just 0.6 goals on average. This defensive prowess is further highlighted by their two clean sheets in the last five matches. In contrast, Lecce's recent form has been less inspiring, with two losses and one draw in their last three outings. They suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat against Como and a 1-2 loss away at Juventus, managing only a 1-1 draw at home with Venezia. Lecce's metrics show they have scored an average of 1.0 goals per game in their last five matches but have also conceded 1.2 goals on average, without managing a clean sheet during this period. Their defensive vulnerabilities could be a key factor against a disciplined Atalanta side.

Final Prediction

Atalanta's defensive strength and recent form provide them with a significant edge over Lecce in this matchup. Lecce's defensive frailties, as evidenced by their recent performances and lack of clean sheets, could be exploited by Atalanta's tactical approach. A key factor to watch will be whether Atalanta can capitalize on their defensive stability to secure a clean sheet and a crucial win in their pursuit of a top-four finish.