Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Parma Prediction

Atalanta

Home Team
87%
VS

Parma

Away Team
6%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 21 16 1 4 44 17 27 49
2 Milan 21 13 7 1 34 16 18 46
3 Napoli 21 13 4 4 31 17 14 43
4 Roma 21 14 0 7 26 12 14 42
5 Juventus 21 11 6 4 32 17 15 39
6 Como 21 10 7 4 31 16 15 37
7 Atalanta 21 8 8 5 26 20 6 32
8 Bologna 21 8 6 7 30 24 6 30
9 Lazio 21 7 7 7 21 19 2 28
10 Udinese 21 7 5 9 22 33 -11 26
11 Sassuolo 21 6 5 10 23 28 -5 23
12 Cremonese 21 5 8 8 20 28 -8 23
13 Parma 21 5 8 8 14 22 -8 23
14 Torino 21 6 5 10 21 34 -13 23
15 Cagliari 21 5 7 9 22 30 -8 22
16 Genoa 21 4 8 9 22 29 -7 20
17 Fiorentina 21 3 8 10 23 32 -9 17
18 Lecce 21 4 5 12 13 29 -16 17
19 Pisa 21 1 11 9 16 31 -15 14
20 Verona 21 2 8 11 17 34 -17 14

Recent Trends

Atalanta ⚪ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)

Parma ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.24
# Clean Sheets: 3

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.13
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A clash between Atalanta and Parma is heavily tipped in favor of Atalanta, with an 87% probability of securing a home victory. The likelihood of Parma pulling off an upset is a mere 6%, while a draw stands at 7%. The match is expected to showcase less than 2.5 goals, with a 50% probability leaning towards a low-scoring affair. In the current standings, Atalanta sits in 7th place, demonstrating a solid season so far, while Parma occupies the 13th position, struggling to find consistency.

Match Analysis

Atalanta's recent form has been impressive, with two wins and one draw in their last three games. They secured victories against Torino and Bologna, both with clean sheets, and managed a draw against Pisa. Their defensive solidity is underscored by conceding only once in their last three matches, highlighting their recent uptick in form. Advanced metrics show Atalanta scoring an average of 1.4 goals while conceding just 0.4 per game in their last five matches. With an average expected goals of 2.368, they are creating plenty of scoring opportunities, further evidenced by their three clean sheets in recent matches. Parma, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results. They managed a victory against Lecce and secured goalless draws against Genoa and Napoli. While they have shown resilience defensively, averaging 0.6 goals conceded in their last five matches, their offensive output remains modest, with an average of 1.2 goals scored. Parma's expected goals of 1.178 indicate a struggle to create clear-cut chances, despite their ability to keep matches tight with two clean sheets in the same period.

Final Prediction

The strong prediction favoring Atalanta stems from their formidable recent performances and solid defensive record. Their ability to control games and capitalize on scoring opportunities gives them a clear edge over Parma. A key factor to watch will be Atalanta's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, a potential game-changer against a defensively sturdy Parma side.