Serie A 2026-2027: Atalanta vs Parma Prediction - 2 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Atalanta

Home Team
73%
VS

Parma

Away Team
11%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +1.3

Why the Model Leans Atalanta

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Atalanta
Attack +12.5 Atalanta
Defense +4.0 Atalanta
Results & dominance +3.6 Atalanta
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.2 Atalanta

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 87% for Atalanta. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Parma defense +5.4 Over
Parma attack & chance creation +3.5 Under
Atalanta defense +3.3 Over
Atalanta attack & chance creation +3.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Atalanta D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Frosinone (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)

Parma D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 1.89
Clean Sheets 0

Parma

xG (avg) 0.78
xGA (avg) 2.54
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are the clear favourites, with a 73% chance of winning, compared with 16% for a draw and 11% for a Parma victory. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 62%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and the contrast in attack are central to Atalanta’s stronger outlook. They average 2.2 goals at home, while Parma have conceded 2.25 per away game. Atalanta’s greater attacking threat gives them a route to control the match, although their defensive record leaves room for Parma to make an impact. Atalanta’s latest match was a 2-2 draw with Fiorentina, after a 4-4 home draw with Frosinone and a 2-3 defeat to Milan. They have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches, a weakness that could keep Parma in the contest. Parma’s latest game ended 0-0 against Udinese, following a 1-2 loss away to Lazio and a 0-3 home defeat to Torino. Those results underline their difficulty turning chances into goals, particularly away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 62%. Parma’s defensive record away from home and Atalanta’s recent failure to keep clean sheets both point towards chances at either end, even if Parma’s attack has been limited.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.0 corners in total. Atalanta’s latest match produced 10 corners, while Parma’s three recent games had totals of 9, 11 and 8.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 28 shots in total. Recent matches have included high attempt counts, notably the 46 shots in Atalanta’s 4-4 draw with Frosinone.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Atalanta wins by X goals. Negative = Parma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Atalanta vs Parma with expected spread of +1.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Atalanta vs Parma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Atalanta are favoured by about 1.3 goals. That margin reflects their home advantage and greater attacking threat, while allowing for the possibility that Parma score.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s lack of clean sheets is the clearest route for Parma to upset the forecast. If Parma can turn their limited away chances into a goal, the home side’s defensive uncertainty could make the contest much closer.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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