Serie A 2025-2026: Atalanta vs Sassuolo Prediction
Atalanta
Home Team
86%
VS
Sassuolo
Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Roma | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Bologna | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Como | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Lazio | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Udinese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Sassuolo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Torino | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Lecce | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Pisa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Genoa | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 | Verona | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 4 |
Recent Trends
Atalanta
- Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
Sassuolo
- Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Atalanta
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.01
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.67
# Clean Sheets:
1
Sassuolo
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.80
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Atalanta and Sassuolo is heavily tilted in favor of the home side, with an 86.0% probability of an Atalanta victory. This prediction is supported by both teams' current league standings, with Atalanta sitting in 11th place and Sassuolo close behind in 12th. Despite their proximity in the standings, there's a significant expectation for a low-scoring affair, with less than 2.5 goals predicted due to a 49.0% probability of the match falling under that threshold.
Match Analysis
In their last three outings, Atalanta has shown resilience, although without triumph. They suffered a narrow defeat to Udinese, followed by two consecutive 1-1 draws against Milan and Cremonese. Their defensive solidity is notable, with an average of only 0.8 goals conceded per game over the last five matches, and they have maintained a clean sheet in one of those encounters. Atalanta's expected goals metrics also suggest they are creating opportunities, averaging 2.014 expected goals, indicating potential for an improved goal-scoring output.
On the other hand, Sassuolo has had a mixed bag of results in their recent fixtures. They managed a win against Cagliari but fell short against both Genoa and Roma. Sassuolo's attacking and defensive metrics are relatively balanced, with both average goals scored and conceded sitting at 1.2 over the last five games. However, their expected goals conceded figure of 1.796 suggests vulnerabilities in defense that Atalanta might exploit.
Final Prediction
Atalanta's slightly better defensive record and higher expected goals creation give them a decisive edge in this matchup. Fans should keep an eye on Atalanta's ability to convert their opportunities into goals, as this could be the key factor in securing a victory. Sassuolo will need to tighten up defensively if they hope to challenge the hosts and avoid slipping further down the standing.