Serie A 2025-2026: Bologna vs Cagliari Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bologna

Home Team
71%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
14%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.4
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Bologna L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)

Cagliari W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 1

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.86
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are strong favourites here: the model gives the home side a 71.0% chance of winning, with Cagliari at just 14.0% and the draw at 15.0%. Ninth in Serie A on 48 points, Bologna are pushing towards the European places, while 16th-placed Cagliari sit on 36 points and are still looking nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone. The game leans towards a tight affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0% and only a 52.0% chance that both sides find the net.

Match Analysis

Bologna come into this on a mixed run from their last three: back‑to‑back 0-2 defeats against Roma (home) and Juventus (away) were followed by a controlled 2-0 home win over Lecce. That pattern underlines a side that can look solid and purposeful at home, yet still lacks punch against the very top sides. Over their last five, they’ve averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but their xG of 1.348 for and 1.38 against suggests they’re creating enough to be slightly more productive in front of goal. Cagliari’s recent results have been more volatile: a dramatic 3-2 home win over Atalanta and a professional 1-0 victory against relegation rival Cremonese were offset by a clear 0-3 loss at Inter. They’ve averaged just 0.6 goals scored but a worrying 2.2 conceded over the last five, with an xG against of 1.864 – pointing to a defence that allows a lot of chances. That contrast between Bologna’s relatively balanced metrics and Cagliari’s leaky back line underpins the strong home-win probability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 prediction, with under favoured over the 47.0% line for total goals. Two of Bologna’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-2, 0-2, 2-0), while Cagliari’s split is one under (1-0 vs Cremonese) and two over (3-2 vs Atalanta, 0-3 vs Inter). Bologna’s modest 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, combined with Cagliari’s low 0.6 scored but high 2.2 conceded and both sides’ xG figures just above 1, point towards a match more likely to be tight than a goalfest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.7, which fits the recent patterns of both sides. Bologna’s last three have produced 14, 7 and 14 corners respectively, while Cagliari’s have seen 10, 13 and 11 – regularly around or above double figures. With Bologna’s home games showing plenty of territorial pressure and Cagliari capable of forcing corners even when underdogs (nine at Inter), the corners prediction of roughly 10 predicted corners suits two teams who attack down the flanks and rely on crosses.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model gives an expected shots figure of 23.35 for the match. Bologna’s last three show 10, 7 and 12 attempts, while facing 7, 14 and 6; Cagliari have taken 9, 10 and 17 shots, conceding 12, 18 and 5. Those numbers align with an overall shots prediction in the low‑to‑mid 20s, and match the xG data suggesting both sides generate around one decent chance per game but allow a similar volume at the other end.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bologna wins by X goals. Negative = Cagliari wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bologna vs Cagliari with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bologna vs Cagliari
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sets an expected spread of +0.99 in Bologna’s favour, effectively calling for a home win by about a goal. Bologna’s last three produced a goal difference of -2, -2 and +2, while Cagliari’s read +1, -3 and +1 – both teams capable of swings, but Cagliari’s defensive numbers are clearly weaker. That expected spread is consistent with the 71.0% home-win probability and Bologna’s more balanced offensive and defensive profile.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s superior league position, home advantage and steadier underlying metrics give them a clear edge over a Cagliari side that concedes too many chances. If Bologna convert the pressure their xG suggests, they should have enough to claim three points. The key factor to watch will be whether Cagliari’s defence can withstand sustained pressure or whether Bologna’s patient build‑up finally cracks them.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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