Serie A 2025-2026: Cagliari vs Udinese Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cagliari

Home Team
43%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
31%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Cagliari D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)

Udinese W D L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

xG (avg) 0.99
xGA (avg) 1.12
Clean Sheets 2

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Cagliari are narrowly favoured to take all three points, with a 43.0% chance of a home win against Udinese’s 31.0%, despite sitting lower in the table (15th on 37 points versus Udinese in 11th on 47). The model leans towards a tight contest, with an expected goal spread of -0.05 essentially calling it a toss‑up but still shading the result towards the Sardinians. The goals market points to an under 2.5 outcome (43.0% probability), suggesting another cagey Serie A clash in the lower half of the table.

Match Analysis

Cagliari come in from a tough run of fixtures but with respectable performances: a 0-0 at Bologna, a 3-2 home win over Atalanta, and a 0-3 defeat away to leaders Inter. They’ve shown they can both shut games down and open them up depending on the opponent, with two clean sheets in their last five and only 1.0 goal conceded on average over that span. Their xG profile – 0.994 created and 1.116 allowed per game in the last five – underlines a team that rarely blows sides away but usually stays competitive. Udinese’s recent form is more open and attacking: a 2-0 home win over Torino, a wild 3-3 draw at Lazio, and a slightly unlucky 0-1 home loss to Parma where they generated 16 shots and 10 corners. They’re averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, with xG of 1.228 for and 1.63 against – more expansive but also more vulnerable. That contrast – Cagliari’s balance versus Udinese’s higher‑event football – sets up a fascinating tactical battle, with Cagliari’s need for points near the bottom three likely sharpening their focus.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The over/under line leans to an under 2.5 prediction, with under favoured at 43.0%. Only one of Cagliari’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (the 3-2 win over Atalanta), with the other two finishing 0-0 and 0-3. Udinese, by contrast, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-3 at Lazio, 2-0 v Torino, 0-1 v Parma). With Cagliari averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded and Udinese at 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus both sides’ xG figures hovering close to 1–1.6 per game, the numbers point to a tight affair more than a goalfest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.77, hinting at a game with a decent but not extreme volume of set-piece situations. Cagliari’s last three produced corner counts of 2, 4 and 9 for them (conceding 7, 6 and 4), while Udinese have been consistently proactive with 5, 5 and 10 corners taken (conceding 2, 4 and 5). This supports a corners prediction around the 10-mark, with Udinese’s willingness to attack and shoot frequently likely generating many of the predicted corners, while Cagliari’s more measured approach should still contribute.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots stands at 25.28, fitting well with recent patterns: Cagliari’s last three matches featured 8, 9 and 10 attempts, while their opponents racked up 13, 12 and 18. Udinese have fired off 19, 16 and 16 shots in their last three, while facing 9, 13 and 10. This shots prediction aligns with Udinese’s high-volume attacking style and Cagliari’s ability to allow efforts without collapsing, mirroring the xG picture of both teams regularly creating around a goal’s worth of chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cagliari wins by X goals. Negative = Udinese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cagliari vs Udinese with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cagliari vs Udinese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is an expected spread of -0.05 (home minus away), effectively rating the teams as level but with a tiny statistical tilt towards Cagliari. Over their last three, Cagliari have a goal difference of -2 (3 scored, 5 conceded), while Udinese sit at +2 (5 scored, 3 conceded). Yet with home advantage, a 43.0% home‑win probability and Cagliari’s more solid defensive metrics, the model edges the spread their way, even if only marginally.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s slight edge comes from home advantage and a more controlled defensive record, even against strong opposition, while Udinese’s openness can cut both ways. If Cagliari can limit Udinese’s shot volume closer to their own recent levels, their chances of grinding out the predicted home win increase. A key factor to watch will be Udinese’s flank play and crossing game, which has been fuelling their high shot and corner counts and could tip the balance if Cagliari fail to contain it.

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