Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Napoli Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Como

Home Team
46%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
31%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 22.5
Expected Spread: +0.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Como W L L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 5 - 0)

Napoli W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

xG (avg) 2.29
xGA (avg) 0.69
Clean Sheets 3

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.55
xGA (avg) 0.59
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Como are narrowly favoured to edge Napoli, with a 46.0% probability of a home win against 31.0% for the visitors and 23.0% for the draw, despite Napoli sitting 2nd and Como 5th in Serie A. The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% implied (48.0% for over). Overall, Como are projected to take a vital three points in the Champions League race.

Match Analysis

Como come into this with mixed but encouraging recent form. They beat Genoa 2-0 away, then lost narrowly at Sassuolo (1-2) and in a seven-goal thriller at home to leaders Inter (3-4). That run shows both their attacking punch and their openness, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded in the last three. Their underlying numbers are strong: 2.8 goals scored on average over the last five games, backed up by 2.294 expected goals per match and three clean sheets in that span, suggesting they generally control games and create quality chances. Napoli, second in the table and chasing Inter, have been more controlled but slightly inconsistent. A 4-0 demolition of Cremonese showed their ceiling, yet that was bookended by a 0-2 home defeat to Lazio and a 1-1 draw at Parma in which they dominated shots (20-3) but couldn’t turn pressure into goals. Over their last five, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG at 1.55 for and just 0.59 against, plus three clean sheets – pointing to a solid defensive structure that doesn’t allow many clear chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The call is under 2.5, with the model giving 48.0% to over and a slight edge to the under 2.5 side of the line. Two of Como’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (3-4 vs Inter, 1-2 vs Sassuolo), with only the 2-0 at Genoa landing under. Napoli, by contrast, have been tighter: all three of their recent matches – 4-0, 0-2, 1-1 – finished with exactly or under three goals, two of them clearly under 2.5. Despite Como’s recent high scorelines, both sides’ xG profiles (2.294 for Como, 1.55 for Napoli, with very low xG conceded) support an over 2.5 prediction being less likely than a more controlled, cagey match.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively modest total, with expected total corners at 8.73. Como’s last three matches saw combined corner counts of 5, 13 and 2, showing big variation but not a constant barrage of wide attacks. Napoli have consistently racked up corners – 7, 12 and 7 in their last three – which suggests they will drive much of the wing play, but Como’s more selective attacking should keep the predicted corners tally just below the frantic levels seen in some Napoli games.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction estimates 22.54 expected shots in total, hinting at an open but not frenetic encounter. Como’s recent shot numbers have swung wildly: 24 attempts against Inter, but only 8 at Genoa and 12 at Sassuolo, showing they can either dominate or sit off depending on the opponent. Napoli have been more stable, firing 25, 12 and 20 shots in their last three while conceding relatively few; combined with both teams’ solid xG figures, the expected shots tally fits a match where both create but defences still limit clear-cut chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Como wins by X goals. Negative = Napoli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Como vs Napoli with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Como vs Napoli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Como -0.26, a slight expected spread in favour of the home side. Recently, Como’s goal differences have been +2, -1 and -1, while Napoli’s have been +4, -2 and 0, underlining how both teams are capable of sharp swings in scoreline but generally keep matches competitive. Given Como’s stronger recent attacking output and Napoli’s marginally lower scoring rate, the expected spread and the 46.0% home-win probability together back the view that Como are just about more likely to edge a one-goal victory.

Final Prediction

Como’s recent attacking fluency, impressive xG numbers and home advantage tilt this finely balanced clash in their favour, even against a Napoli side sitting 2nd and boasting a mean defence. Napoli’s control of territory and corners could still swing it, but their wastefulness in front of goal has cost them points lately. The key factor to watch will be whether Napoli’s compact back line can contain Como’s high-volume chance creation without sacrificing their own cutting edge on the break.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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