Serie A 2026-2027: Como vs Roma Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Como

Home Team
42%
VS

Roma

Away Team
30%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 30.8
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Como

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Como
Chance creation (xG data) +10.6 Roma
Defense +5.3 Como
Results & dominance +2.6 Como
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Roma

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Como. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Como attack & chance creation +7.3 Over
Roma attack & chance creation +4.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Roma defense +2.3 Under
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Como L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 1)

Roma D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

xG (avg) 3.77
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 0

Roma

xG (avg) 3.23
xGA (avg) 0.95
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Como are the likeliest winners at 42%, with Roma at 30% and a draw at 27%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5 at 61%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest support for Como, while Roma’s chance creation gives the visitors a serious route into the match. Como have scored twice in each of their last two wins, against Parma and Genoa, but their 0-2 defeat at Frosinone was a reminder that their attack can be contained. Roma arrive unbeaten in their last three, including a 2-2 draw with Inter and a 2-0 win at Torino. Their attacking numbers are strong, while Como have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. There is also room for Como’s finishing to improve: they have averaged 2.0 goals from 3.8 expected goals across that period.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%. Both sides’ chance creation points toward an open game, with Como’s attack the stronger of the two influences in the goals forecast.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.3 corners. Both teams have shown they can win corners in volume, including Como’s 11 against Parma and Roma’s 14 against Atalanta.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 31 shots. Recent games have included high volumes, with 49 combined shots in Como’s meeting with Frosinone and 45 in Roma’s match against Atalanta.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Como wins by X goals. Negative = Roma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Como vs Roma with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Como vs Roma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Como’s favour. That points to a narrow home advantage rather than a clear gap between the teams.

Final Prediction

Como’s lack of clean sheets leaves an opening for Roma’s attack, which has scored freely in the recent sample. If Roma turn their chances into goals, they can overturn the slight home lean.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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