Serie A 2026-2027: Como vs Venezia Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Como

Home Team
77%
VS

Venezia

Away Team
9%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 29.9
Expected Spread: +1.4

Why the Model Leans Como

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Como
Chance creation (xG data) +6.8 Como
Attack +6.6 Como
Defense +5.5 Como
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.7 Como

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 89% for Como. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Como attack & chance creation +8.3 Over
Venezia defense +4.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +2.3 Over
Venezia attack & chance creation +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Como W W W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 0 - 2)

Venezia L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

xG (avg) 2.65
xGA (avg) 0.99
Clean Sheets 2

Venezia

xG (avg) 1.83
xGA (avg) 2.18
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Como are the clear favourite, with a 77% chance of winning, compared with 14% for a draw and 9% for Venezia. The lean is over 2.5 goals, with a 64% probability.

Match Analysis

Como’s case starts with home advantage and the contrast in chance creation. At home, they have generated 2.6 expected goals per match, while Venezia have conceded 2.2 expected goals away from home. That points to Como getting into dangerous areas regularly, and Venezia’s away defending gives little reason to expect the hosts to be kept quiet. Como have also conceded only eight goals in nine league matches, compared with Venezia’s 19. Recent form strengthens the case. Como have won three straight, beating Fiorentina 3-1, then Sassuolo 2-0 and most recently Torino 3-1. Venezia beat Napoli 1-0, then lost 0-1 to Genoa and most recently 0-2 to Inter. The visitors have shown they can trouble a strong opponent, but their two defeats since that Napoli win leave them with little momentum.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Venezia
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%, driven chiefly by Como’s attacking chances and Venezia’s defensive record away from home. Como’s ability to create should give the match a route to three goals, though Venezia’s attack is a less convincing part of the case.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Venezia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.9 corners. Como’s last three matches produced totals of 11, 10 and 16, suggesting their games can generate a healthy number of corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Venezia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 30 shots. Como’s latest match against Torino featured 29 shots, close to the projection, while their recent fixtures have shown scope for plenty of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Como wins by X goals. Negative = Venezia wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Como vs Venezia with expected spread of +1.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Como vs Venezia
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 1.4 goals in Como’s favour. That fits the gap between Como’s chance creation and Venezia’s away defensive record.

Final Prediction

Venezia’s away chance creation could be the route to changing the forecast. If they turn those opportunities into goals, Como’s strong defensive record will face a more demanding test.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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