Serie A 2025-2026: Cremonese vs Lecce Prediction

Cremonese

Home Team
51%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
24%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Milan 13 8 4 1 19 9 10 28
2 Napoli 13 9 1 3 20 11 9 28
3 Inter 13 9 0 4 28 13 15 27
4 Roma 13 9 0 4 15 7 8 27
5 Como 13 6 6 1 19 7 12 24
6 Bologna 13 7 3 3 22 11 11 24
7 Juventus 13 6 5 2 17 12 5 23
8 Lazio 13 5 3 5 15 10 5 18
9 Udinese 13 5 3 5 14 20 -6 18
10 Sassuolo 13 5 2 6 16 16 0 17
11 Cremonese 13 4 5 4 16 17 -1 17
12 Atalanta 13 3 7 3 16 14 2 16
13 Torino 13 3 5 5 12 23 -11 14
14 Lecce 13 3 4 6 10 17 -7 13
15 Cagliari 13 2 5 6 13 19 -6 11
16 Genoa 13 2 5 6 13 20 -7 11
17 Parma 13 2 5 6 9 17 -8 11
18 Pisa 13 1 7 5 10 18 -8 10
19 Fiorentina 13 0 6 7 10 21 -11 6
20 Verona 13 0 6 7 8 20 -12 6

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.68
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.62
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Cremonese is predicted to win their upcoming clash against Lecce, with a 51.0% probability of victory. While a home win seems probable, the chances of the match featuring more than 2.5 goals stand at 44.0%, suggesting a tighter contest. Cremonese currently sits in 11th place in Serie A, while Lecce is in 14th, indicating a moderately competitive matchup.

Match Analysis

In their recent performances, Cremonese has shown mixed results. They secured an impressive 3-1 away victory over Bologna, showcasing their potential to score against higher-ranked teams. However, they suffered a home defeat to Roma with a 3-1 scoreline and lost 1-0 away to Pisa. These results highlight a struggle to maintain consistency, especially on home turf, where they will be looking to improve. Lecce, on the other hand, managed a narrow 2-1 home win against Torino, a much-needed victory after a series of less favorable outcomes. A 2-0 loss away to Lazio and a goalless draw at home against Verona reflect their challenges in finding the back of the net. Lecce's average of one goal per match over the last five games underscores their offensive struggles, compounded by their higher average goals conceded of 1.8 per game. From an advanced metrics perspective, Cremonese's average goals scored and conceded are 0.8 and 1.4 respectively, indicating some defensive vulnerability. Lecce's slightly better goal-scoring average of 1.0 is offset by a higher expected goals conceded rate of 1.622, suggesting potential weaknesses at the back that Cremonese could exploit.

Final Prediction

Cremonese's home advantage and slightly superior league position give them the edge in this encounter. The key factor to watch is whether Cremonese can capitalize on Lecce's defensive lapses while maintaining their own defensive solidity to secure a much-needed home win. The match promises to be a tightly contested affair, with each team eager to climb the Serie A standings.