Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Cremonese Prediction

Fiorentina

Home Team
86%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 16 12 0 4 35 14 21 36
2 Milan 16 10 5 1 27 13 14 35
3 Napoli 16 11 1 4 24 13 11 34
4 Roma 17 11 0 6 20 11 9 33
5 Juventus 17 9 5 3 23 15 8 32
6 Como 16 7 6 3 22 12 10 27
7 Bologna 16 7 5 4 24 14 10 26
8 Lazio 17 6 6 5 18 12 6 24
9 Sassuolo 17 6 4 7 22 21 1 22
10 Atalanta 17 5 7 5 20 19 1 22
11 Udinese 17 6 4 7 18 28 -10 22
12 Cremonese 17 5 6 6 18 20 -2 21
13 Torino 17 5 5 7 17 28 -11 20
14 Cagliari 17 4 6 7 19 24 -5 18
15 Parma 16 4 5 7 11 18 -7 17
16 Lecce 16 4 4 8 11 22 -11 16
17 Genoa 17 3 5 9 17 27 -10 14
18 Verona 16 2 6 8 13 25 -12 12
19 Pisa 17 1 8 8 12 24 -12 11
20 Fiorentina 17 1 6 10 17 28 -11 9

Recent Trends

Fiorentina ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Udinese (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)

Cremonese ❌ ⚪ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.24
# Clean Sheets: 0

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina is heavily favored to win against Cremonese with an 86% probability, despite their current position at the bottom of the Serie A standings in 20th place. The predicted result will likely see under 2.5 goals scored in the match, aligning with Fiorentina's struggles to find the back of the net consistently. Cremonese, sitting in 12th place, has only a 6% chance of winning, while the chance of a draw stands at 8%.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina's recent form has been a rollercoaster, managing a solitary victory in their last three outings, a commanding 5-1 home win against Udinese. However, this was sandwiched between two disappointing losses to Parma and Verona. Despite averaging 1.8 goals per game over their last five encounters, Fiorentina's defense has been porous, conceding an average of 1.4 goals, with no clean sheets to their name. Their expected goals scored (2.32) suggest they have been underperforming in front of goal. Cremonese, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results, with a draw against Lazio and losses to Napoli and Torino. Their recent matches have been low-scoring, averaging just 1 goal per game, but their defense has been relatively solid with two clean sheets in five games, conceding an average of 0.6 goals. Despite a lower expected goals figure (1.312), their defense could give them a fighting chance against a struggling Fiorentina side.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina's home advantage and higher expected goals could see them edge out Cremonese, despite their current league struggles. The key to watch will be Fiorentina's ability to convert chances into goals, as their expected goals suggest potential that has yet to fully materialize on the pitch. This match could be pivotal for Fiorentina's quest to climb out of the relegation zone.