Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Lecce Prediction
Fiorentina
Home Team
51%
VS
Lecce
Away Team
24%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
54%
No Goal:
46%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Roma | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Inter | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Como | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Bologna | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cremonese | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Atalanta | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 10 | Udinese | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Torino | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Lazio | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Lecce | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Verona | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Pisa | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Genoa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Fiorentina
- Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)
Lecce
- Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Fiorentina
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.94
# Clean Sheets:
1
Lecce
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.45
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Fiorentina and Lecce sees the home side, Fiorentina, predicted to secure a win with a probability of 51.0%. The likelihood of the match concluding with under 2.5 goals is also highlighted at 47.0%. Currently, Fiorentina finds themselves in a precarious 19th position in Serie A, while Lecce is slightly better off in 16th place.
Match Analysis
Fiorentina's recent run of form has been less than stellar, with a draw and two losses in their last three outings. They managed a 2-2 draw at home against Bologna, but suffered defeats away to Inter and Milan, conceding a total of five goals in these two matches. Their average goals scored in the last five games stands at 1.25, which is slightly higher than their expected goals of 1.7025, suggesting some inefficiency in front of goal. Defensively, they have been porous, with an average of 2.25 goals conceded per game.
In contrast, Lecce's recent performances include a narrow home loss to league leaders Napoli and a 2-3 defeat away at Udinese, alongside a goalless draw with Sassuolo. They have managed to score an average of 1.0 goal per game but have a lower expected goals tally of 0.5175, indicating potential struggles in creating quality scoring opportunities. Defensively, they have conceded 1.75 goals on average in their last five matches, yet they have managed to keep two clean sheets, showing some defensive resilience.
Final Prediction
Fiorentina is predicted to have the upper hand primarily due to their home advantage and marginally better offensive metrics. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Fiorentina can capitalize on their chances, considering Lecce's sporadic defensive solidity. With both teams eager to climb out of the relegation zone, this match promises to be a tightly contested battle.