Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Milan Prediction

Fiorentina

Home Team
9%
VS

Milan

Away Team
81%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 18 14 0 4 40 15 25 42
2 Milan 18 11 6 1 29 14 15 39
3 Napoli 18 12 2 4 28 15 13 38
4 Juventus 19 10 6 3 27 16 11 36
5 Roma 19 12 0 7 22 12 10 36
6 Como 18 9 6 3 26 12 14 33
7 Atalanta 19 7 7 5 23 19 4 28
8 Bologna 18 7 5 6 25 19 6 26
9 Lazio 19 6 7 6 20 16 4 25
10 Udinese 19 7 4 8 20 30 -10 25
11 Sassuolo 19 6 5 8 23 25 -2 23
12 Torino 19 6 5 8 21 30 -9 23
13 Cremonese 19 5 7 7 20 23 -3 22
14 Cagliari 19 4 7 8 21 27 -6 19
15 Parma 18 4 6 8 12 21 -9 18
16 Lecce 18 4 5 9 12 25 -13 17
17 Genoa 19 3 7 9 19 29 -10 16
18 Verona 18 2 7 9 15 30 -15 13
19 Fiorentina 19 2 7 10 20 30 -10 13
20 Pisa 19 1 9 9 13 28 -15 12

Recent Trends

Fiorentina ⚪ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Udinese (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)

Milan ⚪ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 1

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.31
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Milan is heavily tipped in favor of the visiting side, Milan. With an 81.0% probability of victory, Milan is expected to come out on top against Fiorentina, who only have a 9.0% chance of winning. The chances of a draw stand at 10.0%. This match is predicted to have under 2.5 goals. In terms of the league standings, Milan is in a strong position at second place, while Fiorentina finds themselves struggling at the bottom, sitting in 19th place.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina's recent form has been inconsistent, reflecting their precarious position in the league. They managed a commendable draw against Lazio and secured a narrow victory over Cremonese, both of which might give them a slight confidence boost. However, their loss to Parma highlights ongoing vulnerabilities, especially in attack where they failed to score. Their average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded in the last five games indicates a balanced but underwhelming performance, with only one clean sheet to their name. On the other hand, Milan has maintained a more robust form, clinching crucial victories against Cagliari and Verona and drawing with Genoa. Their ability to keep two clean sheets in recent matches showcases a solid defense. Milan's average goals scored and conceded per game are identical to Fiorentina's at 1.6 and 1.0 respectively, but their higher expected goals metric suggests they've been creating more scoring opportunities. This offensive potential, coupled with their defensive steadiness, underscores their dominance coming into this match.

Final Prediction

Milan's superior standing in the league, coupled with their recent form and attacking prowess, gives them a significant edge over Fiorentina. Their defensive resilience and ability to capitalize on goal-scoring opportunities make them favorites in this encounter. A key factor to watch will be Milan's adaptability in maintaining defensive solidity while exploiting Fiorentina's weaknesses, which could be crucial in deciding the outcome of the game.