Serie A 2026-2027: Frosinone vs Torino Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Frosinone

Home Team
41%
VS

Torino

Away Team
31%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 71%
No Goal: 29%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 30.2
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Frosinone

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Frosinone
Results & dominance +2.7 Torino
Chance creation (xG data) +2.4 Torino
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.3 Frosinone
Attack +1.5 Torino

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Frosinone. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Frosinone attack & chance creation +7.4 Over
Frosinone defense +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Torino attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
Form & results +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Frosinone W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 0)

Torino L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Frosinone

xG (avg) 2.31
xGA (avg) 2.15
Clean Sheets 1

Torino

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Frosinone are the most likely winners at 41%, with Torino at 31% and a draw at 28%. The goals lean is over 2.5, at 61%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, and Frosinone’s scoring at home gives that advantage substance. They have averaged 2.8 goals at home, while their 2.3 expected goals there suggests they have been finishing slightly above the chances created. Torino’s results, chance creation and attack offer counterweight, though each is a smaller pull than Frosinone’s home setting. Frosinone have scored freely in recent matches, most recently beating Lecce 5-1 after a 4-4 draw away at Atalanta. Their earlier 4-2 win over Sassuolo also points to attacking threat, but the goals conceded in those games leave room for Torino to exploit. Torino’s latest result was a 1-3 loss to Como, following wins over Monza, 3-2, and Parma, 3-0. Their away scoring has been stronger than their away chance creation, so sustaining that output may be difficult.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Frosinone
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%. Frosinone’s attack and chance creation are the strongest factor pushing the total higher, with their recent scoring backed by a high home xG average.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Frosinone
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.7 corners. Frosinone won 10 corners against Lecce in their latest home match, providing a sign of the pressure they can generate.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Frosinone
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 30 shots. Frosinone recorded 26 in their latest match, while Torino’s most recent game featured 29 between the teams.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Frosinone wins by X goals. Negative = Torino wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Frosinone vs Torino with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Frosinone vs Torino
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Frosinone are favoured by about 0.2 goals. That is a narrow margin, consistent with a home win being likelier than either a draw or a Torino victory, but not by a large distance.

Final Prediction

Torino’s away chance creation is the clearest route to disrupting the home lean. If Frosinone’s recent defensive vulnerability persists, Torino could turn their attacking threat into enough goals to change the result.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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