Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction
Genoa
Home Team
56%
VS
Fiorentina
Away Team
21%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5:
43%
Under 2.5:
57%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Roma | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Bologna | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Como | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Lazio | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Udinese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Sassuolo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Torino | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Lecce | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Pisa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Genoa | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 | Verona | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 4 |
Recent Trends
Genoa
- Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
Fiorentina
- Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Genoa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.45
# Clean Sheets:
1
Fiorentina
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.61
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Genoa and Fiorentina is expected to favor the home side, with a 56.0% probability of Genoa securing a victory. The likelihood of Fiorentina winning stands at 21.0%, while there's a 22.0% chance of a draw. Both teams are languishing at the bottom of the Serie A table, with Genoa currently in 18th position and Fiorentina right below them in 20th. The game is predicted to have fewer than 2.5 goals, and there is a 51.0% chance of both teams finding the net.
Match Analysis
Genoa's recent form has been inconsistent, with a notable away win against Sassuolo (2-1) followed by back-to-back losses to Cremonese (0-2) and Torino (1-2). Their struggle to maintain a steady performance is reflected in their low goal-scoring average of 0.0 in the last five games, though they have managed to keep one clean sheet. On the other hand, Fiorentina has been unable to shake off a winless streak, suffering defeats to Lecce (0-1) and Inter (0-3), and managing a draw against Bologna (2-2). They have been slightly more prolific than Genoa, averaging 0.4 goals per game but have yet to secure a clean sheet in their last five matches.
Advanced metrics indicate that Genoa has been slightly more effective in creating scoring opportunities, with an expected goals average of 1.242, compared to Fiorentina's 0.976. However, both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, with Genoa conceding an average of 1.2 goals and Fiorentina 1.2 goals per game, which could play a crucial role in the outcome.
Final Prediction
Genoa's slight edge in offensive metrics and recent victory over Sassuolo provide them with a psychological advantage heading into this fixture. With both teams desperate to climb out of the relegation zone, Genoa's ability to create more goal-scoring opportunities might be the key factor. Fans should watch for Genoa's attacking attempts, as capitalizing on these chances could be the deciding factor in this tightly contested match.