Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Parma Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Inter

Home Team
83%
VS

Parma

Away Team
7%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: +1.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 34 25 4 5 80 31 49 79
2 Napoli 34 21 6 7 52 33 19 69
3 Milan 34 19 10 5 48 27 21 67
4 Juventus 34 18 10 6 57 29 28 64
5 Como 34 17 10 7 59 28 31 61
6 Roma 34 19 4 11 48 29 19 61
7 Atalanta 34 14 12 8 47 32 15 54
8 Lazio 34 12 12 10 37 33 4 48
9 Bologna 34 14 6 14 42 41 1 48
10 Sassuolo 34 13 7 14 41 44 -3 46
11 Udinese 34 12 8 14 41 46 -5 44
12 Parma 34 10 12 12 25 40 -15 42
13 Torino 34 11 8 15 39 56 -17 41
14 Genoa 34 10 9 15 40 48 -8 39
15 Fiorentina 34 8 13 13 38 45 -7 37
16 Cagliari 34 9 9 16 36 49 -13 36
17 Lecce 34 7 8 19 22 46 -24 29
18 Cremonese 34 6 10 18 26 51 -25 28
19 Verona 34 3 10 21 23 56 -33 19
20 Pisa 34 2 12 20 24 61 -37 18

Recent Trends

Inter D W W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)

Parma W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 0.75
Clean Sheets 1

Parma

xG (avg) 0.67
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are clear favourites at San Siro, with an 83.0% probability of victory against mid-table Parma, who are given just a 7.0% chance, and a 10.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a home win with an over 2.5 prediction (60.0% probability of more than three goals), reflecting Inter’s attacking power. Inter sit top of Serie A on 79 points, while Parma, 12th on 42 points, look safely mid-table but outclassed on paper.

Match Analysis

Inter come into this with strong form and plenty of goals. They drew 2-2 away at Torino, then swept Cagliari 3-0 at home and edged a wild 4-3 contest at Como. Across their last five games they are averaging 2.8 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, underpinned by an impressive 2.268 expected goals (xG) created per match and only 0.75 xG allowed. That suggests a side not only winning but consistently creating high-quality chances and largely controlling games, even if the single clean sheet in that run shows they can still be caught. Parma, in contrast, have been grinding rather than sparkling. They beat relegation-threatened Pisa 1-0 at home, then Udinese 1-0 away, before a battling 1-1 draw with title-chasing Napoli. Their last five games show modest attacking returns – 0.8 goals scored and 0.6699 xG created on average – but a reasonably solid defensive profile with just 1.0 goal and 1.29 xG conceded per match, plus two clean sheets. Parma are organised and hard-working, but the underlying numbers point to a side that doesn’t generate much in the final third, which is a concern against the league leaders’ firepower.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% looks justified. Two of Inter’s last three matches – the 2-2 at Torino and 4-3 at Como – finished well over 2.5 goals, with only the 3-0 win over Cagliari staying just under the 3.5 mark but still clearing 2.5 comfortably. Parma, by contrast, have seen all three recent games land under 2.5 (1-0, 1-0, 1-1), which reflects their low attacking output. However, Inter’s average of 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with their strong xG profile, suggests that if this opens up early, Parma’s defensive resistance may not keep the scoreline down.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Inter
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.95 total corners, essentially a 10-corner game. Inter’s recent outings produced 10 corners at Torino (5-5), 13 against Cagliari (4-9), and just 2 at Como (1-1), showing that the match pattern heavily influences their corner counts. Parma’s last three brought 11 corners versus Pisa (7-4), 15 at Udinese (5-10), and 10 against Napoli (3-7). With both sides generally conceding a fair number of corners when pushed back, and Inter expected to attack for long spells, the predicted corners total fits a game where the home side spends plenty of time in the final third.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.86 expected shots overall, roughly 26 attempts between the two sides. Inter’s recent numbers are high-event: 14-14 in shots at Torino, 18-10 at home to Cagliari, and even in the 4-3 win at Como they allowed 24 attempts while taking 7 themselves. Parma’s last three show a similar pattern of being out-shot but hanging in – 15-12 versus Pisa, 16-10 at Udinese, and 20-3 against Napoli. Given Inter’s strong xG and attacking metrics, the expected shots total suggests another match where the leaders generate a high volume of chances and Parma rely on resilience rather than volume.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Inter wins by X goals. Negative = Parma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Inter vs Parma with expected spread of +1.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Inter vs Parma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is firmly in Inter’s favour, with an expected spread of +1.68 goals for the home side. Inter’s last three matches produced winning margins of +3 (3-0 vs Cagliari), +1 (4-3 at Como) and a draw, underlining their ability to pull away when they click. Parma’s recent run is tighter – two 1-0 wins and a 1-1 draw – but those came against weaker or more cautious opponents than the league leaders. When you align Inter’s superior goal difference (+49 overall), their high-scoring trend, and the 83.0% home-win probability, the expected spread of around a two-goal margin looks consistent with the balance of power.

Final Prediction

Inter hold the clear edge thanks to their dominant attack, deep squad and far superior underlying numbers in both goals and xG. Parma’s recent resilience and compact shape may keep them competitive for spells, but their limited chance creation makes it hard to see them matching the league leaders over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch is how early Inter can turn their territorial dominance into goals – if they score first, the game is likely to tilt heavily in their favour.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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