Serie A 2025-2026: Juventus vs Pisa Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Juventus

Home Team
96%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 25.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Juventus D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)

Pisa L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.79
# Clean Sheets: 0

Pisa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.02
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.17
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are overwhelming favourites at home, with a 96.0% probability of victory against a Pisa side given just a 2.0% chance, and the draw at 3.0%. The over 2.5 prediction is also leaning towards goals, with a 58.0% probability of at least three being scored. In the table, Juventus sit 6th on 47 points chasing the European spots, while Pisa are 19th on 15 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Juventus come into this one on a three-game winless run (two defeats and a draw), but the performances have been more encouraging than the raw results. They pushed Inter in a 3-2 away defeat, matched Roma in a chaotic 3-3 draw and only really disappointed in the 0-2 home loss to Como. Across their last five games they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers: 2.448 expected goals created and only 0.79 expected goals allowed per match, even if they oddly haven’t kept a clean sheet in that stretch. Pisa, by contrast, are locked in a brutal fight at the bottom with three straight losses, but the margins have been relatively tight. They fell 1-2 at home to Milan and then suffered back-to-back 0-1 defeats against Fiorentina and Bologna, showing defensive resilience but too little quality in the final third. Over their last five, Pisa are averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, with 1.024 expected goals for and 2.17 against – numbers that underline their struggle to create chances while being regularly opened up at the back. That imbalance, away to a side as efficient as Juventus, is the key dynamic of this fixture.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The line leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 58.0% probability that this game produces at least three goals. Two of Juventus’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Roma, 2-3 vs Inter), with only the 0-2 defeat to Como staying under. Pisa, on the other hand, have had two of their last three finish under 2.5 (0-1 vs Fiorentina, 0-1 vs Bologna) and just one over (1-2 vs Milan). Still, Juve’s average of 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with a dominant 2.448 xG for, suggests they have enough firepower to turn a low-scoring Pisa side into a more open scoreline.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.8 expected shots in total, suggesting a match with a healthy amount of attempts on goal. Juventus have posted 13, 11 and 11 shots in their last three, facing 11, 11 and a hefty 21 from Inter, which aligns with their high xG output. Pisa’s recent shot counts – 6 vs Bologna, 7 vs Fiorentina and 7 vs Milan, conceding 8, 15 and 7 respectively – show a side that limits volume but can’t fully shut opponents down. Given Juve’s superior attacking metrics and Pisa’s tendency to concede good chances, the expected shots figure points to Juventus racking up the majority of those efforts.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ edge is clear: stronger form in front of goal, superior expected goals both for and against, and a massive quality gap between 6th and 19th in the table. Pisa’s recent narrow defeats show they can compete in spells, but sustaining that away to a side creating 2.448 xG per game looks a tall order. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Juventus can turn their territorial dominance into goals – if they strike early, this could become as one-sided as the probabilities suggest.

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